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News

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Crude Oil Consolidates, Awaiting Greek Referendum and Iran Deal

Talking Points:

  • Crude oil prices consolidated, awaiting Greek referendum and Iran deal details
  • Gold regained safe-haven appetite though prices were limited by USD gains
  • Copper bore the weight of economic uncertainty & unimpressive China PMI

Crude oil prices consolidated in yesterday and today sessions after four days of decline as market players calmed down about the implications of the Greek crisis while a deal with Iran was delayed. In Europe, all eyes are on the upcoming Greek referendum scheduled for July 5 where its people will vote to accept or reject the creditors’ proposal. This helped to put the fire out of the sell-off in risk assets including oil due to risk aversion. Yesterday’s deadline for nuclear talks between Iran and the six Western countries have been extended to July 7, while political momentum still points toward a deal. Questions remain on when the sanctions on Iran’s oil exports may be lifted and how much of its output would be built up.

Crude oil ended the first half of this year with a gain of around 11 percent, including a 25 percent increase during the second quarter that marked the largest single-quarter percentage gain since 2009.

Safe haven demand for gold returned to the table in the face of a prolonged progression towards a resolution to the Greek debt crisis. Greece missed a debt repayment deadline to the IMF on Tuesday June 30 as political leaders continue to discuss short- and long-term debt relief. Gold prices briefly dipped past support yesterday but have since retraced back above that level. Nevertheless, upside potential is limited by a recent appreciation in the US Dollar. Long-term demand is also dulled by an impending interest rate rise by the Federal Reserve, which would make bullion less attractive as an investment asset.

Copper prices bore the weight of global economic uncertainty and contradicting Chinese manufacturing PMI readings in morning Asia trade. Prices declined for a third day and are heading towards the multi-month low at 2.5520. China’s official PMI reading came in at 50.2, a reading still in the expansion zone but lower than the 50.3 number expected. On the other hand, HSBC’s Chinese Manufacturing PMI came out at 49.4, an outcome still in the contraction zone but higher than May print of 49.2. These numbers cast further doubt on China’s economic growth, which is correlated with copper demand.

Meanwhile, Chile’s copper production recorded a 2.1 percent increase from a year earlier and a 7.8 percent increase from the prior month in May. Chile is the world number one copper producer, accounting for a third of the world’s output. The implied additional supplies do not bode well for copper prices while demands remain lacklustre.

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Gold prices declined and currently look to be in consolidation after yesterday’s price action failed to test resistance at the 1189.20 level. An immediate support level is found at yesterday’s low of 1166.7. The momentum for upside extension remains weak, hence a test of resistance is unlikely during today session. Gold bulls may watch out for opportunities to trade the range with long positions.

Crude Oil Consolidates, Awaiting Greek Referendum and Iran Deal

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope

COPPER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Copper prices have retreated from Monday’s high and so far seem to be forming a correction lower. Momentum signals indicate an extension lower intra-day towards yesterday’s low and a two-week double bottom at 2.5890. Below that, support is found at 2.5640 which was also a double bottom in mid-June. There is not yet a return of downtrend signal to justify short positions, although the bears may take advantage of the recent fall via range trade.

Crude Oil Consolidates, Awaiting Greek Referendum and Iran Deal

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WTI crude oil prices halted ahead of the 23.6% Fibonacci support level at 57.71 yesterday. Today’s prices are bracing for lower extensions ahead of this support level, with the multi-month low at 56.49 coming right below that. A clean break of support would be necessary for oil prices to get out of the recent range and pave the way for a deeper reversal after the March-May rise.

Crude Oil Consolidates, Awaiting Greek Referendum and Iran Deal

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope

— Written by Nathalie Huynh, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Nathalie on Twitter: @nathuynh

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Strong U.S. ISM Manufacturing to Drag on EUR/USD, Boost Fed Outlook

- U.S. ISM Manufacturing Survey Projected to Pick Up for Second Straight Month in June .

- Employment Component Expanded in May After Contracting the Month Prior.

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Trading the News: U.S. ISM Manufacturing

Another uptick in the ISM Manufacturing survey may boost the appeal of the greenback and trigger a more meaningful pullback in EUR/USD as it boosts speculation for Fed liftoff in the second-half of 2015.

What’s Expected:

EUR/USD ISM Manufacturing

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Why Is This Event Important:

Positive developments coming out of the world’s largest economy may put increased pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to remove the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP), and we may see a growing number of central bank officials prepare U.S. households and businesses for higher borrowing-costs as the region gets on a more sustainable path.

For LIVE SSI Updates Ahead of the ISM Print, Join DailyFX on Demand

Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario

Improved business confidence paired with the pickup in household spending may produce a meaningful advance in the ISM survey, and a better-than-expected print may generate a bullish USD reaction as market participants ramp up bets for a Fed rate hike later this year.

Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario

Nevertheless, the ongoing slack in the real economy may continue to drag on business output, and a dismal manufacturing report may produce near-term headwinds for the greenback as it raises the Fed’s scope to retain its highly accommodative policy stance beyond 2015.

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bullish USD Trade: ISM Survey Climbs to 53.2 or Higher

  • Need to see red, five-minute candle following the release to consider a short trade on EURUSD.
  • If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, sell EURUSD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit.

Bearish USD Trade: Manufacturing Report Disappoints

  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EURUSD trade.
  • Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction.

Potential Price Targets For The Release

EURUSD Daily

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Despite the risk for a Greek exit, EUR/USD may continue to consolidate with the wedge/triangle formation from earlier this year as the pair holds above the May low (1.0818).
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows the retail crowd remains net-short EUR/USD since March 9, with the ratio holding near extremes as it sits at -2.02.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.1510 (61.8% expansion) to 1.1532 (February high)
  • Interim Support: 1.0970 (38.2% expansion) to 1.1000 (50% retracement)

Read More:

COT-Yen Speculators Manic Selling Turns to Manic Buying

Webinar: Greece Charges Euro Gap & Snapback- USDJPY Remains at Risk

Impact that the U.S. ISM Manufacturing report has had on EUR/USD during the last release

May 2015 U.S. ISM Manufacturing

EUR/USD Chart

The U.S. ISM Manufacturing survey increased for the first time since October as the index climbed to 52.8 in May from 51.5 the month prior. A deeper look at the report showed a pickup in New Orders as the figure advanced to 55.8 from 53.5 in April, with the Employment component bouncing back to 51.7 during the same period after marking the contraction since May 2013. The bullish dollar reaction to the better-than-expected ISM report pushed EUR/USD below the 1.0900 handle, but the pair consolidated throughout the North American trade to end the day at 1.0923.

— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst and Shuyang Ren

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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CADJPY Short Scalps Favored Sub-99.00 on Failed Gap Fill

Talking Points

CADJPY Daily

CADJPY Short Scalps Favored Sub-99.00 on Failed Gap Fill

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • CADJPY breaks June opening range lows / median-line support- bearish
  • Interim support confluence into 97.54, break targets key support zone into 94.43
  • Interim Resistance at 98.80/90-bearish invalidation
  • Breach above resistance targets the upper MLP / Sunday uncovered gap
  • Daily RSI approaching 40 support- break below would be bearish
  • Event Risk Ahead: Japanese Tankan Index tonight & U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls on Thursday

CADJPY 30min

CADJPY Short Scalps Favored Sub-99.00 on Failed Gap Fill

Notes: The CADJPY failed to fill the Sunday open gap before breaking below confluence Fibonacci support at 98.80/90. The focus remains weighted to the short-side while below this level with today’s decline finding support at the lower median-line parallel, just above the 38.2% retracement at 97.53. Momentum divergence into the lows leaves the pair at risk for a rebound near-term, but we’ll be looking to sell rallies / support triggers while below the ML off the highs.

Bottom line: looking for this rebound to offer short entries with a break below near-term support targeting subsequent objectives at 96.80 & 96.42. A breach above the 99-handle invalidates our near-term outlook with such a scenario targeting the upper median-line parallel backed by the uncovered gap at 100.48. A quarter of the daily average true range yields profit targets of 21-24pips per scalp.

For updates on this scalp and more setups throughout the week subscribe to SB Trade Desk

Relevant Data Releases

CADJPY Short Scalps Favored Sub-99.00 on Failed Gap Fill

Other Setups in Play:

—Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex, contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

Join Michael for Live Scalping Webinars on Mondays on DailyFXat 12:30 GMT (8:30ET)

Interested in learning about Fibonacci? Watch this Video

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AUD/USD Continues to Hold Key Support Despite RBA Verbal Intervention

Talking Points:

- AUD/USD Holds Key Support Despite RBA Verbal Intervention- China PMI’s in Focus.

- GBP/USD Outlook Clouded as Greek Uncertainties Drag on BoE Expectations.

- USDOLLAR Preserves Range Ahead of ADP Employment & ISM Manufacturing.

For more updates, sign up for David’s e-mail distribution list.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • AUD/USD may continue to work towards the top of its current range around 0.7820-30 (38.2% retracement) amid the ongoing closes above key support- 0.7570 (50% retracement) to 0.7590 (100% expansion).
  • Even though Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Glenn Stevens retain the verbal intervention on the local currency, positive developments coming out of China – Australia’s largest trading partner – highlight an improved outlook for global growth.
  • Nevertheless, DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail traders remain net-long AUD/USD since May 15, but the ratio has come off extremes as it sits at +2.16.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD Daily Chart

  • Despite the upward revision in the U.K. 1Q GDP report, GBP/USD may continue to face range-bound prices going into July as the spillover from a Greek event dampens the outlook for the economy & prospects for a Bank of England (BoE) rate hike.
  • Will keep a close eye on the fresh rhetoric coming out of the BoE as Governor Mark Carney is scheduled to present the semi-annual Financial Stability Report on July 1; will the central bank head highlight a growing dissent?
  • Waiting for a break/close above 1.5780 (38.2% retracement) to 1.5790 (50% expansion) or below 1.5630 (38.2% retracement) to 1.5650 (38.2% expansion) to highlight a near-term directional bias for GBP/USD.

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates Across the Majors!

Read More:

Price & Time: Game (Theory) Day for Equities

Webinar: Greece Charges Euro Gap & Snapback- USDJPY Remains at Risk

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

AUD/USD Continues to Hold Key Support Despite RBA Verbal InterventionUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar may face a larger rebound amid the ongoing series of closing prices above 11,826 (61.8% expansion) to 11,843 (38.2% retracement), but the greenback may continue to consolidate ahead of the Federal Reserve’s July 29 interest rate decision as market participants speculate on the liftoff.
  • Will keep a close eye on the ADP Employment report along with the ISM Manufacturing survey as market expectations call for another 230K expansion in U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP).
  • May continue to see range bound prices going into July, with near-term resistance coming in around 11,898 (50% retracement) to 11,901 (78.6% expansion).

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates!

AUD/USD Continues to Hold Key Support Despite RBA Verbal Intervention

— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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Recent USDOLLAR Uptrend Under Pressure as World Waits on Greece

Talking Points:

- EURUSD trading back under $1.1200 after June Euro-Zone CPI.

- USDJPY threatening to lose key ¥122.40 support area.

- See the June forex seasonality report.

The EURUSD rally and USDJPY breakdown has put the USDOLLAR Index back at recent trend support. See the above video for technical considerations in EURUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD, and the USDOLLAR Index.

Read more: Charts to Start the Week as Euro Plays Victim to Greek Drama

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Pound May Fall on UK GDP, Euro Engulfed in Greece Crisis Fallout

Talking Points:

  • Greece Set to Miss IMF Repayment with As-Yet Unknown Euro Implications
  • Pound May Decline if 1Q UK GDP Revision Weighs on BOE Rate Hike Bets
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The revised set of first-quarter UK GDP figures headlines the economic calendar in European hours. The baseline outlook calls for a slight upgrade showing output expanded 0.4 percent versus the 0.3 percent gain initially reported. UK news-flow has tended to underperform relative to consensus forecasts recently, opening the door for a downside surprise. Such an outcome may push back BOE rate hike expectations, weighing on the British Pound.

The preliminary set of June’s Eurozone CPI figures is likewise on tap. The core year-on-year inflation rate is expected to edge lower to 0.8 percent after hitting a nine-month high at 0.9 percent in the prior month. The outcome seems unlikely to trigger a significant response from the Euro considering its limited implications for near-term ECB policy trends. Indeed, the central bank seems to be on auto-pilot as policymakers continue to implement the €60 billion/month QE effort launched earlier this year.

Furthermore, Greece remains in focus as the markets continue to digest the breakdown in negotiations between Athens and its creditors over the weekend. While a national referendum on the compromise offered by the so-called “institutions” represents the next pivotal inflection point, the country is due to return €1.6 billion to the IMF today. While Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has already said the payment will not be made, the fund’s response on the implications of doing so have been unclear.

On balance, Christine Lagarde and company will probably want to avoid being the hand that forces the issue and opt to wait for the referendum’s outcome. Still, headline risks remain substantial and sharp volatility may break out. The ECB’s response may prove at least as important as that of the IMF itself. If the central bank judges Athens has defaulted, it will have to decide whether it will cut off emergency financing support for Greek banks. The central bank likely has little interest in shaping political realities, but keeping an eye on news-flow remains a priority.

The New Zealand Dollar underperformed in overnight trade as disappointing economic data drove fueled RBNZ interest rate cut expectations. The ANZ Business Confidence dropped to -2.3 in June, the lowest since March 2011. The Japanese Yen strengthened as risk aversion fueled safe-haven demand and encouraged unwinding of carry traders funded in terms of the perennially low-yielding currency.

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Asia Session

European Session

Critical Levels

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak