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News

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USDOLLAR Continuation as EUR/USD, GBP/USD Fail at Resistance

Talking Points:

- USDOLLAR continues broadly higher thanks to AUD, JPY.

- EUR/USD, GBP/USD channels/flags near breaking points.

- See the ‘high’ importance events on the DailyFX Economic Calendar.

See the above video for technical considerations in EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, and EURGBP.

Read more: EUR/USD, GBP/USD Attempt Reversals, AUD/USD Loses Channel Pre-FOMC

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Euro Bounce on PMIs Unlikely to Last, US Dollar at Risk on CPI Drop

Talking Points:

  • Euro Gains on Pickup in PMI Readings Unlikely to Yield Follow-Through
  • US Dollar Vulnerable if Soft CPI Print Undercuts Fed Rate Hike Outlook
  • Yen Drops Alongside Japanese Yields, Aussie Down on Weak China PMI

The preliminary set of November’s Eurozone PMI figures headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The region-wide composite gauge is forecast to show manufacturing- and service-sector activity growth narrowly accelerated for a second consecutive month. An upbeat result may offer a short-lived boost to the Euro but follow-through seems unlikely considering the inability of such outcomes to meaningfully alter the ECB’s decidedly dovish posture.

Later in the day, the spotlight turns to October’s US CPI report. The benchmark year-on-year inflation rate is seen edging lower to 1.6 percent, the lowest in seven months. Investors may interpret a weak result as suggesting that the Fed will be relatively slow to issue its first post-QE interest rate hike, punishing the US Dollar.

The Japanese Yen underperformed in overnight trade, sliding as much as 0.6 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move tracked a drop in Japan’s benchmark 10-year bond yield, hinting the selloff reflected bets on increasingly accommodative monetary policy after GDP figures released earlier in the week showed the world’s third-largest economy has sunk back into recession.

The Australian Dollar likewise faced selling pressure after the HSBC Chinese Manufacturing PMI gauge proved disappointing, showing factory-sector activity unexpectedly stalled in November. The East Asian giant is Australia’s top export market, meaning a slowdown there translates into an ebbing outlook for cross-border sales that bears down on overall economic growth and RBA monetary policy projections.

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Asia Session

European Session

Critical Levels

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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EUR/USD to Press Fresh Monthly Highs on Lackluster U.S. CPI

- U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) to Slow for Fourth Time in 2014.

- Core Rate of Inflation to Hold at Annualized 1.7% for Third Month.

For more updates, sign up for David’s e-mail distribution list.

Trading the News: U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI)

A downtick in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) may spark a more meaningful rebound in EUR/USD as it dampens the interest rate outlook for the world’s largest economy.

What’s Expected:

EUR/USD CPI

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Why Is This Event Important:

It seems as though the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is in no rush to normalize monetary policy as a growing number of central bank officials highlight the downside risk for inflation expectations, and a marked slowdown in price growth may undermine the bullish sentiment surrounding the greenback as central bank hawks Richard Fisher and Charles Plosser lose their vote in 2015.

Expectations: Bearish Argument/Scenario

Subdued wages paired with the slowdown in service-based activity may drag on price growth, and a weaker-than-expected CPI print may trigger a larger rebound in EUR/USD as market participants scale back bets for higher borrowing costs in the U.S.

Risk: Bullish Argument/Scenario

Nevertheless, the ongoing improvement in household and business confidence may stoke faster price growth, and a strong inflation report should boost the appeal of the greenback as it raises the Fed’s scope to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later.

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How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bearish USD Trade: U.S. CPI Slows to Annualized 1.6% or Lower

  • Need to see green, five-minute candle following the release to consider a long trade on EURUSD
  • If market reaction favors a bearish dollar trade, buy EURUSD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit

Bullish USD Trade: Headline & Core Price Growth Exceed Market Expectations

  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a short EURUSD trade
  • Implement same setup as the bearish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction

Potential Price Targets For The Release

EUR/USD Daily Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • With the break of the monthly opening range, will watch former support on EUR/USD for new resistance.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.2610 (61.8% expansion) to 1.2620 (50% retracement)
  • Interim Support: 1.2280 (100% expansion) to 1.2300 pivot

Read More:

Scalping the EURNZD Recovery- Interim Resistance 1.5980

Price & Time: Make Or Break For AUD/USD

Impact that the U.S. CPI report has had on EUR/USD during the last release

September 2014 U.S. Consumer Price Index

EUR/USD Chart

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) held steady at an annualized rate of 1.7% in September amid forecasts for a 1.6% print. At the same time, the core rate of inflation also remained unchanged at 1.7% during the same period. Lower energy and transportation costs continued to drag on price growth, while the report showed stable prices for nearly all other sectors. With the subdued outlook for inflation, the Fed may retain the highly accommodative policy for an extended period of time in order to balance the risks surrounding the region. The better-than-expected CPI print spurred a bullish reaction in the greenback, with EUR/USD slipping below 1.2675 during the North America trade to end the day at 1.2637.

— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst and Shuyang Ren

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David’s e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

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USDOLLAR Outlook Mired by Downside Inflation Risk- CPI in Focus

Talking Points:

- USDOLLAR Fails to Break Monthly Opening Range as FOMC Highlights Downside Risk for Inflation.

- USD/JPY Extends Advance on Dovish BoJ- RSI Resistance in Focus.

- GBP/USD Rebounds from Fresh Monthly Low as BoE Sees Greater Risk for Inflation.

For more updates, sign up for David’s e-mail distribution list.

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

USDOLLAR Outlook Mired by Downside Inflation Risk- CPI in FocusUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index may hold the monthly opening range as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) highlights the downside risk for inflation; still waiting for a bullish break in RSI for conviction/confirmation for another leg higher.
  • With the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) expected to slow to an annualized 1.6% in October, a further downtick in the headline reading may generate a larger pullback in USDOLLAR as the Fed remains in no rush to normalize monetary policy.
  • Lack of momentum to close above 11,312 (78.6% retracement) and 11,351 (78.6% expansion) raises the risk for a larger correction; will watch former resistance around 11,120 (161.8% expansion) to 11,138 (61.8% expansion) for new support.

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Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

USD/JPY

USD/JPY Daily Chart

Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • USD/JPY extends advance as Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda sounds less confident in achieving the 2% target for inflation; .
  • May see a further advance in USD/JPY as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) pushes deeper into overbought territory, but will keep a close eye on the 87 figure for resistance on the oscillator.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd is net-short USD/JPY since November 12, with the ratio sitting at -1.41.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD Daily Chart

  • GBP/USD rebounds from a fresh monthly low (1.5588) even though the Bank of England (BoE) Minutes showed another 7-2 split as a growing number of central bank officials highlight a risk of overshooting the 2% target for inflation.
  • With U.K. Retail Sales projected to rebound 0.3% in October, positive data prints should heighten the appeal of the sterling as the BoE remains on course to normalize monetary policy in 2015.
  • As GBP/USD continues to hold above 1.5540 (78.6% retracement) to 1.5550 (61.8% expansion), will watch former support around 1.5890 (61.8% retracement) to 1.5900 (50% expansion) for new resistance.

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Read More:

Price & Time: Make Or Break For AUD/USD

NZDUSD Rally at Risk Sub 7975- Scalps Target Near-term Correction

— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David’s e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

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Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums

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Scalping the EURNZD Recovery- Interim Resistance 1.5980

Talking Points

EUR/NZD Daily

Scalping the EURNZD Recovery- Interim Resistance 1.5980

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • EURNZD posts daily outside reversal off TL confluence (2013 Median Line & July TL support)
  • Correction targets near-term resistance 1.5976, 1.6047- bearish invalidation
  • Support at today’s lows / median line bisector1.5806/20
  • Daily RSI bounce at 40- constructive
  • Momentum breach above 50 / resistance trigger(s) would be bullish
  • Event Risk Ahead: New Zealand PPI tomorrow & US CPI on Thursday

EUR/NZD 2-hour

Scalping the EURNZD Recovery- Interim Resistance 1.5980

Notes:Momentum divergence into trendline support followed by an outside reversal candle which compromised the weekly opening range highs shifted the immediate focus higher in the EURNZD yesterday. The rally has halted at the confluence of the 50% retracement off the November highs and an operative pitchfork resistance at 1.5978. A breach above this level targets more critical resistance at 1.6047/62 region and the broader pitchfork resistance line off the September highs ~1.61.

Bottom line: we’ll favor buying dips while above the ascending median line bisector with a rally into 1.6047/62 likely to offer more favorable short entries. A break below 1.5806/20 invalidates our bias with such a scenario targeting the July trendline support down towards 1.57. Use caution heading into data out of Europe with PMI metrics tomorrow and a speech by Mario Draghi on Friday likely to fuel added volatility in EUR crosses.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Key Economic Releases

Scalping the EURNZD Recovery- Interim Resistance 1.5980

Other Setups in Play:

—Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

Join Michael for Live Scalping Webinars on Mondays on DailyFX and Tuesday – Thursdays on DailyFX Plus (Exclusive of Live Clients) at 13:30 GMT (8:30ET)

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EUR/USD to Carve Near-Term Top on Hawkish FOMC Minutes

- Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Concludes QE Program at October 29 Meeting

- Will the Fed Implement Hawkish-Twist to the Forward-Guidance for Monetary Policy?

Trading the News: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes may heighten the bullish sentiment surrounding the U.S. dollar should we see a growing number of central bank officials show a greater willingness to move away from the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP).

What’s Expected:

EUR/USD FOMC Minutes

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Why Is This Event Important:With growing speculation for a Fed rate hike in mid-2015, a more hawkish twist to the forward-guidance for monetary policy may spur a near-term selloff in EUR/USD especially as the European Central Bank (ECB) prepares to implement more non-standard measures in December.

Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario

The pickup in private consumption along with the ongoing recovery in household sentiment may encourage the FOMC to adopt a more hawkish tone for monetary policy, and the bearish outlook for EUR/USD may continue to take shape over the near to medium-term amid the growing deviation in the policy outlook.

Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario

However, the majority of the FOMC may endorse a more neutral tone for monetary policy as subdued wage growth continue to dampen the risk for inflation, and the central bank may endorse a wait-and-see approach over the coming months amid the slowdown in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region.

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates Across the Majors!

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bullish USD Trade: Fed Officials Show Greater Willingness to Normalize

  • Need red, five-minute candle following the policy statement to consider a short EUR/USD position
  • If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from cost; at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit

Bearish USD Trade: Majority of FOMC Retains Support for ZIRP

  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade
  • Implement same strategy as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction

Read More:

Price & Time: Make Or Break For AUD/USD

NZDUSD Rally at Risk Sub 7975- Scalps Target Near-term Correction

Potential Price Targets For The Release

EUR/USD Daily

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Long-term EUR/USD outlook remains bearish, but may see a larger correction if the monthly opening range gives way.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.2610 (61.8% expansion) to 1.2620 (50% retracement)
  • Interim Support: 1.2280 (100% expansion) to 1.2300 pivot

Impact that the FOMC minutes has had on EUR/USD during the last release

September 2014 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes

EUR/USD Chart

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) struck a similar tone to the policy statement following the September 17th meeting, with the central bank reiterating that the monetary policy outlook will largely be data dependent. At the same time, the Fed curbed its growth forecast for the second half of the year amid growing concern that the ongoing appreciation in the U.S. dollar will have a larger dampening effect on the real economy. Comments surrounding the exchange rate dragged on the greenback, with EUR/USD breaking above the 1.2740 and ending the day at 1.2742.

— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst and Shuyang Ren

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David’s e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on DailyFX on Demand

Looking to use the DailyFX Trade Signals LIVE? Check out Mirror Trader.

New to FX? Watch this Video

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums