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AUD To Remain Resilient Amid Drive To Yield and Void of Local Data

AUD To Remain Resilient Amid Drive To Yield and Void of Local Data

AUDUSD [2 HR – 08/22/2014] Chart created using FXCM Marketscope

Fundamental Forecast for Australian Dollar: Neutral

  • AUD/USD Consolidates As Dovish Policy Bets Diminish Amidst Return To Yield
  • Void of Major Regional Data To Leave ‘Period of Stability’ Rates Scenario Intact
  • Carry Demand May Support AUD As Traders Look Past Geopolitical Tensions

The Australian Dollar is heading for another relatively flat finish to the week ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium. The currency was afforded some support as RBA policy expectations shifted away from the more dovish end of the spectrum. This came on the back of a status-quo set of RBA Meeting Minutes and a relatively optimistic set of comments from Governor Stevens on the domestic economy. Additionally, a broader return to high-yielding instruments helped offset some of the negative cues provided by a deterioration in Chinese economic data.

Looking ahead, RBA policy bets as well as general market risk appetite remain the dominant themes to monitor for the Aussie. On the policy front; a void of local economic data is on the calendar heading into the end of the month. This is likely to leave the ‘period of stability’ baseline scenario for rates intact. Which in turn could keep the currency supported via its yield spread over its major counterparts.

Of course, the appeal of the currency’s interest rate advantage is intrinsically linked to broader risk sentiment. Implied volatility remains near multi-year lows despite a small recovery for the gauge over the past month. This suggests traders are pricing in a relatively small probability of major market swings in the near-term. Such an environment raises the attractiveness of carry trades and bodes well for the Aussie.

Further, the threat posed to investor optimism by ongoing geopolitical turmoil appears to have diminished in recent weeks. Storm clouds continue to loom over Eastern Europe and the Middle East. Yet traders seem to have become desensitized to the latest flare-ups. This suggests it would likely take a material escalation in the regional turmoil to threaten the resilience of the Australian Dollar.

Given the lack of major local events the main risks of the AUD/USD breaking from its recent range are likely to stem from its US counterpart. Refer to the US Dollar outlook for insights into how the USD side of the equation may influence the pair.

Written by David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst, DailyFX

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Gold Tumbles to Fresh Two Month Lows on Fed Outlook- $1271 Support

Gold Tumbles to Fresh Two Month Lows on Fed Outlook- $1271 Support

XAU/USD [2HR – 08/22/2014] Chart created using FXCM Marketscope

Fundamental Forecast for Gold: Bearish

Gold prices are sharply lower this week with the precious metal off by more than 2.1% to trade at $1276 ahead of the New York close on Friday. The decline marks the second weekly loss and takes bullion into fresh nine-week lows as the greenback continued to rip higher with the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index climbing nearly 1% in its single largest weekly range since mid-April.

A string of strong reports out of the US coupled with a slightly more hawkish tone to the minutes from the latest FOMC policy meeting has kept the dollar bulls in control with gold trading heavy as easing geopolitical concerns and a more upbeat assessment of the economy continued to buoy risk higher alongside the greenback. All eyes fell on Jackson Hole Wyoming on Friday for the Kansas City Economic Symposium with Janet Yellen’s keynote speech largely striking a balanced tone. The Fed Chair noted significant under-use of labor resources while citing room for wage increases that would remain rather benign on inflation. She seemed to play both side when it came to interest rates, noting that slower progress on goals may delay rate increases while faster progress would bring hikes sooner. The result offered little direction for gold prices which traded sideways into the close of the week after posting 5-days of consecutive declines to break into fresh monthly lows.

Looking ahead to next week, traders will be closely eyeing the second print for 2Q GDP with consensus estimates calling for a slight downward revision to an annualized pace of 3.9% from 4% q/q. July durable goods orders, pending home sales, and the final read for the August University of Michigan Confidence survey are also on tap next week and we’ll look for stronger data to broadly remain supportive of the dollar / limit gold advances. The biggest possible supportive variable for gold would be a more substantial sell-off in stocks with such a scenario likely to fuel risk-off flows into the perceived safety of the yellow metal. That said, the technical picture remains rather bleak.

From a technical standpoint, gold remains within the confines of a well-defined descending channel formation off last month’s high and our focus remains lower while below the 200-day moving average at $1284 with interim support seen at $1271. A break below this level eyes a key support zone at $1251/58 backed by $1233 and $1206. We’ll reserve $1292 as our bearish invalidation level with a breach above targeting key resistance at $1321.

—Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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Japanese Yen at Make-or-Break Levels Ahead of Key Data

Japanese Yen at Make-or-Break Levels Ahead of Key Data

Japanese Yen at Make-or-Break Levels Ahead of Key Data

Fundamental Forecast for Yen: Bearish

US Dollar might finally be breaking versus Japanese Yen

USDJPY resistance extends into ¥104.30 and ¥104.54

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The Japanese Yen tumbled towards yearly lows versus the US Dollar, and key data in the week ahead could decide whether the USDJPY makes a sustained break of its year-to-date trading range.

Traders sent the Yen steadily lower despite a relatively empty economic calendar and limited market-moving news headlines. Event risk picks up as we look to the Jackson Hole Economic PolicySymposium over the weekend, while Japanese Jobless Rate figures as well as National Consumer Price Index inflation results could drive moves through late-week trading.

Early indications suggest that the Jackson Hole conference may prove far less significant than expected. Yet it’s worth noting Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will join Bank of England Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent and Central Bank of Brazil Governor Alexandre Tombini on a panel to discuss “Labor Markets and Monetary Policy” on Saturday morning. Any important policy announcements or changes in forecasts seem unlikely, but we can’t rule out any gaps in JPY and GBP pairs through Sunday’s market open.

It may subsequently take major surprises out of upcoming Japanese inflation and jobless figures to drive a more substantial Yen breakdown. Traders have shown little interest in anything except sharply worse-than-expected domestic economic data, and the week ahead will likely prove no exception.

It seems cliché to claim that a specific currency is “at a crossroads”, but it is no exaggeration to claim that it may be a make-or-break week for the Yen as it trades near critical support. Major currency reversals often coincide with the beginning and end of the calendar month, and the fact that we’re headed into the final week of August puts special focus on the fast-falling Yen.

Traders for their part remain positioned for a USDJPY breakout; futures data show large speculators are near their most short JPY (long USDJPY) since December. FX options show that Yen volatility prices remain near multi-week highs but remain fairly low by historical standards. It may take a significant build in FX volatility to drive the next leg of Japanese Yen weakness. – DR

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USD/JPY Clears April High on Yellen- AUD/USD Continues to Eye 0.9200

Talking Points:

- USD/JPY Clears April High (104.11) Even as S&P 500 Remains Capped by 1,994

- AUD/USD Risks More Meaningful Run at 0.9200 Support Amid Range-Bound Prices

- USDOLLAR Rebounds From 10,615 as Fed Chair Yellen Adopts More-Neutral Tone

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USD/JPY

USD/JPY Clears April High on Yellen- AUD/USD Continues to Eye 0.9200

  • Rallies to a fresh monthly high of 104.18 with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) pushing deeper into overbought territory.
  • Next key topside region to watch comes in around 105.20 (50.0% expansion) to 105.50 (61.8% retracement), which includes the 2014 high of 105.43.
  • The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) ratio on USD/JPY flipped on August 19 and shows retail crowd is now net-short as it stands at -1.65.

AUD/USD

USD/JPY Clears April High on Yellen- AUD/USD Continues to Eye 0.9200

  • String of failed attempts to push back above former support (0.9330-40) raises the risk of seeing a more meaningful move at the key 0.9200-10 support zone.
  • Bearish RSI momentum may continue to limit the topside for AUD/USD; may need a key catalyst to spur a break of near-term range.
  • May need the Fed to lay out a more detailed exit-strategy as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to see a period of interest rate stability.

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Read More:

EUR/USD, USD/JPY Ready for Yellen, Draghi Jackson Hole Speeches

Fed’s Yellen Stokes USD Rally as Labor Progress Could Incite Rate Hikes

USDOLLAR

USD/JPY Clears April High on Yellen- AUD/USD Continues to Eye 0.9200USD/JPY Clears April High on Yellen- AUD/USD Continues to Eye 0.9200

Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index continues to eye former support from earlier this year around 10,657 (61.8% expansion) as Fed Chair Janet Yellen adopts a more neutral tone for monetary policy.
  • Keeping a close eye on the RSI as it remains capped by 78; bullish break in oscillator to favor a further USD advances.
  • However, a turn in the RSI and a break of the bullish momentum would highlight a risk for a larger correction in the greenback.
  • Interim Resistance: 10,657 (61.8% expansion) to 10,661 (23.6% retracement)
  • Interim Support: 10,555 (50.0% retracement) to 10,561 (100% expansion)

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— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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EUR/USD, USD/JPY Ready for Yellen, Draghi Jackson Hole Speeches

Talking Points:

- Below 1.3335, EURUSD is exposed to 1.3095.

- If rejected at 103.85/90, USDJPY needs to hold 103.05/10.

- US Dollar strength in August shouldn’t surprise – it’s a seasonally strong month.

With no Wall Street economists invited to this year’s Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, market participants widely expect that the high-minded conference will take on a more academic tone.

Considering that the main focus of the conference is labor market recovery, the context of current times – traders waiting with baited breath for each Nonfarm Payrolls report – there is still significant scope for Fed Chair Yellen’s speech to make waves in markets.

With the unemployment rate at 6.2% after having been as low as 6.1% in June, the U3 rate is on track to meet or beat the Fed’s expectations. Claims continue to drop, and quit rates are at their highest levels in five years. On the contrary, long-term unemployment an issue and wage growth exceptionally weak.

In conjunction with signs of other major economies starting to flail (all of Europe, Japan) and rising geopolitical concerns that could act as a coolant to risk appetite or even global trade, Chair Yellen is likely to embrace a dovish tone today, highlighting the underutilization of the US labor markets.

EUR/USD, USD/JPY Ready for Yellen, Draghi Jackson Hole Speeches

US yields have been falling for some time now and the yield curve has undergone quite a bit of flattening this year (the 2s10s spread has narrowed from +264.8-bps on December 31, 2013 to +192.0-bps today), showing the market has fallen in step with the Fed’s demands for lower yields for longer.

Any hint of a pivot away from this ultra accommodative stance and towards and accelerated rate hike schedule could easily spook the markets.

See the technical video for considerations specifically for EURUSD, USDJPY, and USDCAD.

Read more: EUR/USD Slide Continues but EUR Weakness Elsewhere Questionable

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Gold Braces For Volatility Ahead of Yellen, Crude Oil Consolidates

Talking Points

  • Crude Oil Drifting As Traders Look Past Iraqi Turmoil
  • Precious Metals Prep For Volatility On Jackson Hole
  • Silver At A Crossroads Near Trendline Resistance

Crude oil is treading water during the Asian session with a lack of major catalysts ahead potentially setting the commodity up for a period of consolidation. Meanwhile, gold and silver are mounting a small recovery with traders likely repositioning themselves ahead of the parade of speeches by central bankers at Jackson Hole.

Crude Drifting As Traders Look Past Iraqi Turmoil

WTI managed a small corrective bounce during trading on Thursday which likely reflected profit-taking on short positions. The commodity was likely overdue for a slight recovery given the speed and magnitude of recent declines. Yet with traders discounting the potential for supply disruptions due to geopolitical turmoil the fuel to sustain a recovery may be lacking.

Precious Metals Prep For Volatility On Central Banker Summit

Gold and silver remain in a precarious position as traders look past tensions in Eastern Europe, which in turn threatens to sap safe-haven demand for the alternative assets. This leaves hopes for a recovery to hang on the prospect of dovish remarks from Fed Chair Janet Yellen at her upcoming Jackson Hole address.

The central banker is set to deliver remarks on the labour market. A reiteration of strong concerns over persistent weakness in wage growth and underemployment would reinforce the prospect that US rates will remain at record lows over the near-term, which in turn is a negative for the USD.

Gold Braces For Volatility Ahead of Yellen, Crude Oil Consolidates

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude is threatening a corrective bounce following the emergence of a Harami candlestick pattern on the daily. Yet odds of a more sustained recovery remain stacked against the commodity. This is in light of the sustained downtrend made evident by the descending trendline and prices holding below the 20 SMA. Sellers are likely to re-emerge at the 95.00 handle, which may offer a fresh entry into new short positions. A daily close above the trendline barrier would likely be required to signal the possibility of a more sustained shift in sentiment.

Crude Oil: Recovery May See Sellers Emerge At 95.00

Gold Braces For Volatility Ahead of Yellen, Crude Oil Consolidates

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Downside risks remain for gold following the crack of key support at 1,280. This may set the precious metal up for a run on the 1,241 floor with reversal signals seemingly lacking. However, a multi-month low for the ATR warrants some skepticism over a sustained decline, given anemic volatility readings generally do not support breakouts.

The DailyFX SpeculativeSentimentIndex suggests a bearish bias for gold based on trader positioning.

Gold: Crawl Under 1,280 Opens Knock On June Lows

Gold Braces For Volatility Ahead of Yellen, Crude Oil Consolidates

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

A descending trendline on the daily continues to keep silver in check as the precious metal descends towards the 19.00 target. Sustained negative momentum reflected by the Rate of Change indicator supports the potential for further weakness. While an ensemble of Dojis suggests some hesitation from traders, key reversal patterns remain lacking.

Silver: March Towards $19.00 Target Slows

Gold Braces For Volatility Ahead of Yellen, Crude Oil Consolidates

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COPPER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Copper has vaulted over the critical 3.19 hurdle which may open the door to a retest of the base metal’s recent highs. The reversal follows a Bullish Engulfing formation which helped to signal a shift in sentiment for the commodity.

Copper: Sentiment Shifts As Hurdle Cleared

Gold Braces For Volatility Ahead of Yellen, Crude Oil Consolidates

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

PALLADIUM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Palldium’s core uptrend remains intact following a rebound from the 200 SMA and 861 barrier. This casts the spotlight back to the metal’s recent highs at the critical 900 ceiling. A break of the ascending trend channel would be required to warn of a top.

Palladium: Rebounds With Core Uptrend Intact

Gold Braces For Volatility Ahead of Yellen, Crude Oil Consolidates

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

PLATINUM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

An absence of bullish reversal signals and presence of a sustained downtrend for Platinum may yield further declines for the commodity. A daily close below the 1,424 floor opens a knock on the 1,395 barrier. However, after ten straight days of declines a corrective bounce seems overdue at this point. A more sustained recovery would require a leap over the descending trendline.

Platinum: Targeting 1,395 With Bearish Signals Intact

Gold Braces For Volatility Ahead of Yellen, Crude Oil Consolidates

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Written by David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst, DailyFX

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Contact and follow David on Twitter: @DaviddeFe