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News

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EUR/USD Outlook Remains Mired by Bearish Trend, Dovish ECB

Talking Points:

- EUR/USD Preserves Bearish Formation Ahead of European Central Bank (ECB) Meeting.

- GBP/USD Range Remains in Play Ahead of Bank of England (BoE) Rate Decision, Inflation Report.

- USDOLLAR Slips to Fresh Weekly Low as Weak Wage Growth Drags on NFP, Fed Expectations.

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EUR/USD

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • EUR/USD remains at risk of facing a further decline in August as price & RSI retain the downward trend; may see a more meaningful run at the 1.0790 (50% expansion) to 1.0800 (23.6% expansion) region as long as the bearish structures remain in play.
  • The European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to retain its pledge to ‘fully implement’ its quantitative easing (QE) program, but may need a greater willingness to implement more non-standard measures to see a threat of the wedge/triangle formation from earlier this year.
  • Nevertheless, the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-short EUR/USD since March 9, with the ratio slipping to -1.99 as 33% of traders are now long.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD Daily Chart

  • Ongoing failed attempts to close above near-term resistance around 1.5630 (38.2% retracement) to 1.5650 (38.2% expansion) may continue to generate range-bound prices for GBP/USD.
  • With the Bank of England (BoE) releasing its interest rate decision, the vote count along with the quarterly inflation report next week, a greater dissent within the committee may heighten the appeal of the British Pound as Governor Mark Carney continues to prepare U.K. households and business for lower borrowing-costs.
  • Will keep a close eye around 1.5450 (61.8% retracement) to 1.5460 (23.6% expansion) for near-term support, with the key downside area of interest coming in around 1.5330 (78.6% expansion) to 1.5350 (50% retracement).

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Read More:

Euro “Stutter Step”?

The Weekly Volume Report: USD/CAD Turnover Supports Broader Trend

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

EUR/USD Outlook Remains Mired by Bearish Trend, Dovish ECBEUR/USD Outlook Remains Mired by Bearish Trend, Dovish ECB

Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar slips to a fresh weekly low following the marked slowdown in the U.S. Employment Cost Index, and the greenback remains at risk of facing additional headwinds over the near to medium-term as the ongoing mixed batch of data drags on interest rate expectations.
  • Currently seeing market forecasts for another +225K expansion in U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), but will keep a close eye on the Labor Participation Rate along with the wage growth figures as the Federal Reserve looks for a further implement in employment before removing the zero-interest rate policy.
  • Break/close below the Fibonacci overlap around 11,951 (38.2% expansion) to 11,965 (23.6% retracement) may open up former resistance around 11,898 (50% retracement) to 11,901 (78.6% expansion).

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EUR/USD Outlook Remains Mired by Bearish Trend, Dovish ECB

— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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Breakout on Tap Next Week? USDOLLAR Index Eyes Flag Top

Talking Points:

- EURUSD rebounds back above $1.0980 on EZ CPI data.

- AUDUSD at fresh yearly lows; USDCAD waits for Canadian GDP.

- See the DailyFX economic calendar for Friday, July 31, 2015.

It’s the end of the month, which means fund managers and traders alike will be revisting their books. This rebalancing effect – the reallocation of capital across asset classes based on relative over/underperformance – tends to have a profound impact on FX markets as light hedging is sought or profit taking is undertaken.

Accordingly, the bull flag that has formed in the USDOLLAR Index may need to wait a few days before commencing – even as price action the past two days has been constructive within the consolidation, and the range top has come into focus.

The current consolidation in the USDOLLAR Index since July 15 is being viewed as a bull flag in context of the break of the downtrend from the April and June swing highs. With H4 indicators returning to bullish territory (daily and weekly Stoch and MACD already in positive territory), momentum may start to gather pace (we what call “full timeframe continuity”) should recent swing highs near 12063 give way; risk should be contained just below recent range lows near 11977.

The alternative outcome (the main one we’re considering given current information, amid a nuanced set of possible future outcomes) would be for a double/triple top forming against 12063 with a break under 11977. In that case, the measured move would point towards 11891. which would result in a retest of former trendline resistance off of the April and June swing highs.

See the above video for technical considerations in EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD, and the USDOLLAR Index.

Read more: USDOLLAR Index Consolidates in Bull Flag Post-FOMC

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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US Dollar May Rise on Rate Hike Bets, Euro to Look Past CPI Data

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar May Rise as Employment Cost Data Boosts Fed Rate Hike Outlook
  • July’s Flash Eurozone CPI Unlikely to Inspire Lasting Euro Follow-Through
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The preliminary set of July’s Eurozone CPI figures headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The benchmark year-on-year inflation rate is expected print at 0.2 percent, unchanged from the prior month.

The release seemsunlikely to inspire meaningful follow-through from the Euro considering their limited implications for near-term ECB monetary policy. Indeed, the central bank appears effectively on auto-pilot as it continues to implement its €60 billion/month QE effort through September 2016.

US economic data will enter the spotlight in the day. The second-quarter Employment Cost Index report is in focus, where expectations point to a slight deceleration for a print at 0.6 percent compared with 0.7 percent in the three months through March.

US news-flow has increasingly outperformed relative to consensus forecasts recently, opening the door for an upside surprise. Such a result – particularly if it is bolstered by an upside revision on July’s University of Michigan Consumer Confidence gauge – stands to reinforce bets on an on-coming Fed interest rate hike following this week’s hawkish shift in FOMC rhetoric, boosting the US Dollar.

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Asia Session

European Session

Critical Levels

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

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Commodities Reverses Gains as Dollar Firms after Fed and GDP Data

Talking Points:

  • Gold declined as solid US data supported rate hike
  • Oil reversed gains amid ample global supply
  • Copper set for a third monthly loss due to demand concerns

The US dollar maintained its gains overnight with data showing a faster pace of growth in the second quarter and a revised advance in the first quarter. Solid data buoyed expectations for an interest rate rise this year which is dollar-positive. As a result, USD-denominated commodities lost ground across the board.

Gold held declines as a solid second quarter GDP bolstered rate hike chances and curbed its appeal. Bullion sets for a biggest monthly drop in two years and is eyeing yesterday’s low at 1082.4, ahead of a five-year low at 1071.2. In a higher interest rate environment, it is harder for gold to compete against return-yielding assets like equities and bonds. Bullion will likely follow a downward path in reverse to an upward trajectory in U.S. interest rate.

Crude oil reversed gains as adequate global supply downplayed a recent weekly drop in U.S. inventories. U.S. stockpiles are still above the five-year average for this season, while slower economic growth in China fueled concerns that it may curtail demand for oil and industrial metals. Brent also lowered.

Copper headed for a third monthly loss, although it is still up this week amid reports of production disruptions. In contrary to signs of an economic pick-up in the US, China’s economy seems to set for the slowest growth in a quarter of a century. Subsequently, research indicated that China’s copper demand may grow at a slowest pace in almost two decades. China’s benchmark stock index has lost 28 percent since it peaked on June 12, despite a recent recovery after Monday’s stock rout.

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Gold fell below support level at 1085 yesterday and it is eyeing the lower region today. However there is little chance for it to break away from the recent range, with a floor at 1071. Downtrend signal shows signs to resume and that would be good news for the gold bears. Caution should still be exercised before this range is truly broken.

Commodities Reverses Gains as Dollar Firms after Fed and GDP Data

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope

COPPER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Copper stayed flat in the Asian morning after it plunged to 2.3570 overnight, which is taken as today’s support level. On the daily chart, copper remains stuck in a correction after a two-month downtrend. In the absence of momentum bias, there is little opportunity for range trade of copper today.

Commodities Reverses Gains as Dollar Firms after Fed and GDP Data

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WTI oil gave back some of its yesterday’s gains although prices remained above 48 in the Asian morning. WTI and Brent seem to be in a consolidation after their two-month declines. A retracement below 48 may provide opportunity for the oil bears to position shorts if only for range trade.

Commodities Reverses Gains as Dollar Firms after Fed and GDP Data

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope

— Written by Nathalie Huynh, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Nathalie on Twitter: @nathuynh

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Euro-Zone CPI to Spark EUR/USD Rebound on Sticky Inflation

- Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (CPI) to Expand Another 0.2% in July.

- Core Inflation to Hold Steady at Annualized 0.8% for Second Consecutive Month.

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Trading the News: Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (CPI)

The Euro-Zone’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) may spur a bullish reaction in EUR/USD as sticky price growth in the monetary union dampens the European Central Bank’s (ECB) scope to implement more non-standard measures.

What’s Expected:

EUR/USD CPI

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Why Is This Event Important:

Even though the ECB retains its pledge to ‘fully implement’ its quantitative easing (QE) program, the diminishing threat for deflation may encourage central bank President Mario Draghi to adopt a more upbeat tone over the coming months, and the Governing Council may start to discuss a potential exit strategy going into 2016 amid signs of a more sustainable recovery in the euro-area.

Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario

Increased consumption paired with the pickup in private-sector credit may encourage faster price growth across the euro-area, and an unexpected expansion in the CPI may heighten the appeal of the single currency as the region gets on a more sustainable path.

Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario

However, European firms may continue to offer discounted prices amid high unemployment along with lower input costs, and a dismal inflation report may produce further headwinds for the euro as the ECB retains a very dovish outlook for monetary policy.

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How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bullish EUR Trade: CPI Highlights Sticky Price Growth

  • Need green, five-minute candle following the release to consider a long EUR/USD trade.
  • If market reaction favors a bullish Euro trade, buy EUR/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit.

Bearish EUR Trade: Euro-Zone Inflation Exceeds Market Forecast

  • Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short EUR/USD trade.
  • Implement same setup as the bullish Euro trade, just in opposite direction.

Read More:

Price & Time: Big Moment For Kiwi

Dollar Forecast Improves, Indicator Shows it May Rally Across the Board

Potential Price Targets For The Release

EURUSD Daily

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Failure to hold above the Fibonacci overlap around 1.0970 (38.2% expansion) to 1.0990 (50% retracement) raises the risk for a further decline in EUR/USD as the pair continues to search for support, with the July low (1.0807) on the radar.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI)shows the retail crowd remains net-short EUR/USD since March 9, but the ratio continues to narrow ahead of August as it sits at -1.43, with 41% of traders long.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.1180 (23.6% expansion) to 1.1210 (61.8% retracement)
  • Interim Support: 1.0790 (50% expansion) to 1.0800 (23.6% expansion)

Impact that the Euro-Zone CPI report has had on EUR during the last release

June 2015 Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (CPI)

EUR/USD Chart

The Euro-Zone’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed to an annualized rate of 0.2% in June from 0.3% the month prior, while the core rate of inflation also matched market expectations as it slipped to 0.8% from 0.9% during the same period. Despite the slowdown, it looks as though the monetary union is largely moving away from a disinflationary environment after facing negative price growth earlier this year, and the Europe Central Bank (ECB) may turn increasingly upbeat towards the economy as President Mario Draghi sees a moderate recovery in the euro-area. The Euro bounced back following the in-line prints, with EUR/USD working its way above the 1.1200 handle, but the pair struggled to holds its ground during the North American trade as it closed the day at 1.1140

— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst and Shuyang Ren

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David’s e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on DailyFX on Demand

Looking to use the DailyFX Trade Signals LIVE? Check out Mirror Trader.

New to FX? Watch this Video

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums

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USDOLLAR Index Consolidates in Bull Flag Post-FOMC

Talking Points:

- EURUSD back below $1.1000 as headlines from Greece re-emerge.

- USDJPY bulls may be disappointed unless ¥124.60/65 is achieved.

- See the DailyFX economic calendar for Thursday, July 30, 2015.

Yesterday’s FOMC shook out as expected: the Fed took on a modestly hawkish tone, with several disclaimers as to why they wouldn’t pre-commit to interest rate hikes. Price action around the meeting was rather fickle, with markets first taking the stance that the Fed’s view that the economy was “nearly balanced” would deter them from raising rates in September, to then the position that ‘data dependency’ means a September rate hike is very much alive.

In either case, we’re going to continue to monitor the USDOLLAR Index as it too is behaving in a technical manner that would imply the Fed was a bit more hawkish yesterday than appeared at first blush. It seems there is still a rather significant driver afoot: the differential between when markets are pricing the Fed to raise rates; and when the Fed is telling markets it may raise rates.

In this particular scenario, with the market more dovish than the Fed (the market is pricing in a January 2016 rate hike, while various FOMC members have indicated that September 2015 is possible), there may be a floor under the US Dollar. If data gets worse, and Fed policymakers are forced to tone down their narrative, then the market is already pricing in that outcome; however if data stays the course, traders may find themselves behind the eight ball, and forced to rapidly adjust interest rate expectations upwards, providing a veritable source of support in the weeks ahead.

See the above video for technical considerations in EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD, and the USDOLLAR Index.

Read more: Preview for FOMC Meeting and Trade Setups for USD-pairs

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form