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News

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Dismal 1Q U.S. GDP Report to Fuel Larger EUR/USD Rebound

- U.S. GDP Report to Show First Contraction in Growth Since 1Q 2014.

- Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) to Hold at Lowest Level Since 4Q 2010.

Trading the News: U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

A marked downward revision in the preliminary 1Q U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report may drag on the greenback and spur a near-term rebound in EUR/USD as the Federal Reserve looks to carry its zero-interest rate policy into the second-half of 2015.

What’s Expected:

EUR/USD 1Q GDP

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Why Is This Event Important:

Even though the Fed pledges to look past the economic weakness drive by transitory factors, a larger-than-expected contraction in the growth rate may spur a further delay in the central bank’s normalization cycle as it undermines expectations for a stronger recovery.

For LIVE SSI Updates Ahead of the U.S. GDP Print, Join DailyFX on Demand

Expectations: Bearish Argument/Scenario

Waning demand from home and abroad may become a growing concern for the Fed amid the ongoing slack in the real economy, and a dismal GDP report may dampen the appeal of the greenback as it drags on interest rate expectations.

Risk: Bullish Argument/Scenario

Nevertheless, increased business outputs paired with the expansion in private-sector credit may offer a better-than-expected GDP print, and prospects for a stronger recovery may spur a bullish reaction in the dollar as the Fed remains on course to remove the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) in 2015.

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bearish USD Trade: Growth Rate Contracts 0.9% or Greater

  • Need to see green, five-minute candle following the GDP report to consider a long trade on EURUSD.
  • If market reaction favors a short dollar trade, buy EURUSD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit.

Bullish USD Trade: 1Q GDP Report Exceeds Market Forecast

  • Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short EURUSD trade.
  • Implement same setup as the bearish dollar trade, just in reverse.

Potential Price Targets For The Release

EURUSD Daily

EUR/USD Daily Charts

Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Failure to preserve the near-term downward trending channel may generate a larger rebound in EUR/USD and spur a consolidation phase in the days ahead.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows the retail crowd remains net-short EUR/USD since March 9, with the ratio currently sitting at -1.66.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.1180 (23.6% expansion) to 1.1210 (61.8% retracement)
  • Interim Support: 1.0790 (50% expansion) to 1.0800 (23.6% expansion)

Read More:

USD/JPY Bullish Formation Favored Despite Overbought RSI Signal

AUD Resuming Downtrend Backed by Sentiment & Volume Analysis

Impact that the U.S. GDP report has had on EUR/USD during the last release

4Q 2014 U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

EUR/USD Chart

Even though the preliminary 4Q U.S. GDP print was revised down to an annualized 2.2% from an initial forecast of 2.6%, the print still managed to exceed market expectations for a 2.0% rate of growth. At the same time, Personal Consumption was also revised down to 4.2% from 4.3%, while the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) remained unchanged at 1.1% during the same period. The better-than-expected GDP reading may keep the Fed on course to normalize monetary policy in 2015 as the central bank anticipates a stronger recovery in the year ahead. The greenback strengthened following the report, with EUR/USD slipping below the 1.1200 handle to end the North American session at 1.1189.

— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst and Shuyang Ren

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David’s e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

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US Dollar at Risk on GDP Downgrade, NZ Dollar Down on RBNZ Bets

Talking Points:

  • NZ Dollar Swoons Amid Building RBNZ Interest Rate Cut Speculation
  • Unexpected Swiss GDP Drop Fuels SNB Easing Bets, Punishes Franc
  • US Dollar May Weaken as GDP Downgrade Weighs on Fed Outlook

The New Zealand Dollar underperformed in overnight trade, falling as much as 0.8 percent on average against its top counterparts. The move tracked a slump in front-end bond yields, pointing to building RBNZ rate cut speculation as the catalyst behind the move.

A round of disappointing economic data may have inspired the shift in investors’ outlook. Building permits fell 1.7 percent in April while a measure of business confidence from ANZ bank dropped to the lowest level since September 2014. Markets now price in a 54 percent probability of an RBNZ rate cut at the next policy meeting. That amounts to the most certain that investors have been about on-coming easing in three years.

The Swiss Franc likewise traded lower after GDP figures unexpectedly showed the economy contracted 0.2 percent in the first quarter, marking the worst result since the three months through September 2011. The currency’s slump was mirrored by a drop in Switzerland’s benchmark 10-year bond yield, suggesting investors took the data to mean an expansion of the SNB’s stimulus efforts may be in the cards.

Looking ahead, a revised set of first-quarter US GDP figures is in focus. A downward revision showing output shrank at an annualized pace of 0.9 percent is expected. Initial estimates pointed to a 0.2 percent increase. A soft print may weigh on the US Dollar as investors turn their gaze back to Fed rate hike expectations, which have conspicuously stagnated this week even as the greenback soared.

New to FX? START HERE!

Asia Session

European Session

Critical Levels

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

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USDJPY Breakout Testing Initial Resistance Ahead of U.S. GDP

Talking Points

  • USDJPY breakout coming into first zone of resistance / 2007 highs
  • Updated targets & invalidation levels heading into June trade
  • Event Risk on TapThis Week

USD/JPY Daily

USDJPY Breakout Testing Initial Resistance Ahead of U.S. GDP

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • USDJPY testing key near-term resistance confluence 1.2413/35
  • Breach targets objectives at 125.62/70 backed by ML resistance (~126.40) & 128.12/18
  • Interim support with the May TL backed by 121.83-122- bullish invalidation
  • Daily RSI in overbought- Constructive while this condition holds
  • Event Risk Ahead: Japan Jobless Rate, CPI & Industrial Production tonight & U.S. 1Q GDP on Friday

USD/JPY 30min

USDJPY Breakout Testing Initial Resistance Ahead of U.S. GDP

Notes:USDJPY has been trading within the confines of a well-defined median-line formation with today’s rally stretching into the first level of significant resistance at 124.13/35. This zone is defined by the 2007 high, the 1.618% extension of the advance off the December low, near-term MLP resistance & a slope line extending off the January 2015 high (daily chart).

Intra-week divergence into the highs leaves the pair vulnerable for a pullback below this threshold with a break below the highlighted region into 123.53 shifting the near-term focus towards the lower MLP / 122.97. The broader bias remains constructive while above the 122-handle.

Bottom line: We’ll be looking for either a break above 124.35 or a break below this formation for guidance heading into June trade with the broader bias weighted to the topside above 122. A topside break keeps the long bias in play targeting 125 backed by 125.67/70. The average true range is rather tight here so to accommodate the near-term breakout we’ll look for a larger portion of the range with a third of the daily ATR yielding profit targets of 26-29 pips per scalp. Caution is warranted heading into U.S. event risk tomorrow morning with end of week/month flows also likely to fuel added volatility in USD crosses.

For updates on this scalp and more setups throughout the week subscribe to SB Trade Desk

Relevant Data Releases

USDJPY Breakout Testing Initial Resistance Ahead of U.S. GDP

Other Setups in Play:

—Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex,contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

Join Michael for Live Scalping Webinars on Mondays on DailyFXat 12:30 GMT (8:30ET)

Interested in learning about Fibonacci? Watch this Video

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USD/JPY Bullish Formation Favored Despite Overbought RSI Signal

Talking Points:

- USD/JPY Topside Targets Remain Favored as RSI Pushes Deeper Into Overbought.

- USD/CAD Breakout Starts to Materialize Ahead of Canada 1Q GDP Report.

- USDOLLAR Resilience Continues as Fed Officials Highlight 2015 Liftoff.

For more updates, sign up for David’s e-mail distribution list.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY Daily Chart

Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • USD/JPY remains at a risk for a further advance amid the ongoing series of higher highs & lows in price, with the next topside target coming in around 124.80 (100% expansion); need the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to slip back below 70 to look for a near-term correction.
  • A marked slowdown in Japan’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) may have a limited impact on the exchange rate, but may put increased pressure on the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to further expand its asset-purchase program as the central bank pledges to achieve the 2% target for inflation in fiscal year 2016.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd has flipped back to net-long USD/JPY on May 27 as the ratio currently stands at +1.06.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD Daily Chart

  • USD/CAD faces a growing risk for a breakout as it threatens the triangle/wedge formation carried over from March; will keep a close eye on the RSI as it approaches overbought territory.
  • Even though Canada’s 1Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report is expected to show the economy expanding an annualized 0.3%, a marked slowdown may further dampen the appeal of the loonie as the Bank of Canada (BoC) sticks to its wait-and-see approach.
  • Close above 1.2480 (61.8% retracement) paired with a break of the consolidation phase may open up the door for a move into 1.2620 (50% retracement) to 1.2640 (78.6% retracement).

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates Across the Majors!

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

USD/JPY Bullish Formation Favored Despite Overbought RSI SignalUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • The near-term resilience in Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar may continue to take shape over the remainder of the week as it continues to carve a bullish formation; seeing increased expectations for Fed liftoff in September.
  • Despite expectations for a meaningful downward revision in the U.S. 1Q GDP report, market participants may show a muted reaction to an in-line print as San Francisco Fed President John William, a voting-member on the 2015 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), endorses a rate hike in 2015.
  • Close above the Fibonacci overlap around 11,951 (38.2% expansion) to 11,965 (23.6% retracement) will bring up 12,049 (78.6% retracement).

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates!

USD/JPY Bullish Formation Favored Despite Overbought RSI Signal

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David’s e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on DailyFX on Demand

Looking to use the DailyFX Trade Signals LIVE? Check out Mirror Trader.

New to FX? Watch this Video

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums

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Pound May Overlook UK GDP Upgrade, Aussie Dollar Drops on Capex Data

Talking Points:

  • Australian Dollar Down as Capex Slump Fuels RBA Rate Cut Speculation
  • British Pound May Not Find Follow-Through in Revised UK GDP Figures
  • News-Flow from G7 Meeting Eyed for Guidance on Greece Funding Woes

The Australian Dollar underperformed in overnight trade, falling as much as 0.5 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move followed a disappointing first-quarter Private Capital Expenditure reading.

The report showed capex spending fell 4.4 percent in the first three months of the year, marketing the largest drawdown since the third quarter of 2009. The currency’s decline tracked a drop in Australian front-end bond yields, suggesting the soft data set fueled RBA rate cut speculation.

The Yen briefly the lowest levels since 2002 against the US Dollar as Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index spiked to a 15-year high, weighing on the safety-linked currency. Losses proved fleeting however as share prices reversed course.

The second revision of second-quarter UK GDP figures headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. A slight upgrade showing output expanded 0.4 percent in the first three months of the year is expected. Initial estimates pointed to a 0.3 percent gain.

An upbeat outcome may prove supportive for the British Pound but follow-through seems unlikely to prove lasting considering the outcome’s limited implications for near-term BOE rate hike speculation. Indeed, the central bank’s latest quarterly Inflation Report suggested policymakers’ baseline assumption is for tightening to begin no sooner than mid-2016.

Traders will likewise continue to monitor news-flow emerging from the ongoing G7 finance ministers and central bank chiefs meeting in Dresden. The situation in Greece is likely to feature prominently in the discussion. The markets will be keen to gauge the tone of conversion considering the funding crisis’ formative impact on price action over recent days.

New to FX? START HERE!

Asia Session

European Session

Critical Levels

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive Ilya’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

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GBP/USD at Risk for Rebound on Upbeat 1Q U.K. GDP Report

- Preliminary U.K. 4Q GDP to Expand an Annualized 2.5% Amid Lowest Print Since 4Q 2013.

- Private Consumption to Climb 0.7% – Fastest Pace of Growth Since 3Q 2014.

Trading the News: U.K. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

An upward revision in the U.K. 1Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) print may heighten the appeal of the British Pound and spur a near-term rebound in GBP/USD as signs of a stronger recovery raises the Bank of England’s (BoE) scope to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later.

What’s Expected:

GBP/USD UK GDP

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Why Is This Event Important:

A marked uptick in the growth rate may spur a growing dissent within the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) as the central bank remains on course to normalize monetary policy, and we may see a greater number of BoE officials prepare U.K. households and business for higher borrowing-costs as the economy gets on a firmer footing.

For LIVE SSI Updates Ahead of the U.K. GDP Print, Join DailyFX on Demand

Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario

The pickup in business outputs along with the ongoing improvement in the labor market may stoke a larger-than-expected upward revision in the growth rate, and a positive development may produce a bullish reaction in the sterling as it boosts interest rate expectations.

Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario

However, the widening trade deficit paired with the ongoing slack in private-sector activity may drag on the growth rate, and a dismal GDP figure may further delay the BoE’s normalization cycle especially on the back of the uncertainties clouding the outlook for fiscal policy.

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bullish GBP Trade: U.K. 1Q GDP Expands Annualized 2.5% or Greater

  • Need to see green, five-minute candle following the GDP report to consider a long trade on GBP/USD.
  • If market reaction favors a long sterling trade, buy GBP/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit.

Bearish GBP Trade: Growth Rate, Personal Consumption Falls Short of Market Forecast

  • Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short GBP/USD trade.
  • Implement same setup as the bullish British Pound trade, just in the opposite direction.

Potential Price Targets For The Release

GBP/USD Daily

GBP/USD Daily Chart

Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • GBP/USD remains at risk for further weakness as price & the RSI fail to retain the bullish formation carried over from April; .
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows the retail crowd remains net-long GBP/USD since May 21, with the ratio currently standing at +1.40.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.5550 (61.8% expansion) 1.5570 (38.2% retracement)
  • Interim Support: 1.5180 (23.6% retracement) to 1.5190 (50% retracement)

Read More:

USD/CAD at Risk for Breakout as Traders Dismiss BoC Rate Decision

Price & Time: Broader Trend Resuming in USD/CAD?

Impact that the U.K. GDP report has had on GBP/USD during the last release

4Q 2015 U.K. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

GBP/USD Chart

The U.K. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report was largely in-line with market expectation as the economy grew another annualized 2.7% during the last quarter of 2014. Even though the BoE remains on course to normalize monetary policy, the Bank of England (BoE) may retain its wait-and-see approach throughout 2015 as the ongoing slack in the real economy dampens the outlook for growth and inflation. The initial market reaction in the British Pound was short-lived, with GBPUSD sliding below the 1.5500 handle and ending the day at 1.5402.

— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst and Shuyang Ren

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David’s e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on DailyFX on Demand

Looking to use the DailyFX Trade Signals LIVE? Check out Mirror Trader.

New to FX? Watch this Video

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums