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Euro Vulnerable as German CPI, Draghi Commentary Looms Ahead

Talking Points:

  • Aussie, NZ Dollars Rise as Australian 3Q Capex Data Tops Expectations
  • Japanese Yen Higher as Nikkei 225 Drops, Fueling Safe-Haven Demand
  • Euro Vulnerable with German CPI, Draghi Commentary in the Spotlight

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.5 percent apiece against the majors. The move followed a supportive Australian Capital Expenditure figures that showed spending on fixed assets unexpectedly rose 0.2 percent in the third quarter. Economists were forecasting a decrease of 1.9 percent ahead of the release.

An increase in capex outlays bodes well for Australian economic growth, which is in turn supportive for RBA interest rate bets. It is likewise positive for New Zealand’s output and monetary policy prospects considering Australia is the island nation’s largest export market, accounting for over 20 percent of cross-border sales.

The Japanese Yen likewise advanced, adding as much as 0.4 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move paced a drop in Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index, pointing to risk aversion as the catalyst behind demand for the safety-linked currency.

Looking ahead, November’s preliminary German CPI report is in focus in European trading hours. The baseline year-on-year inflation rate is expected to decline to 0.6 percent, the lowest in nearly five years. A soft outcome may fuel speculation about ECB stimulus expansion, weighing on the Euro.

The single currency may find added downward pressure from scheduled commentary by ECB President Mario Draghi. The central bank chief may echo yesterday’s remarks from Vice President Vitor Constancio, who said doubts about the potency of QE are “not well founded” and alluded that the decision to buy sovereign bonds could be made as soon as the first quarter of next year.

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Asia Session

European Session

Critical Levels

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Crude Crumbles On OPEC Inaction Speculation, Silver Slips

Talking Points

WTI has slipped to a fresh 2014 low in Asian trading today after witnessing a decline of close to half a percent on Wednesday. US Inventories Data released during the session revealed a climb in US crude production to its highest level since 1985, as well as a significantly higher-than-expected jump in total stockpiles.

Focus will be on the upcoming OPEC meeting over the coming session. Speculation has been rife over possible production cuts in response to falling prices. Yet at this stage members have given little indication over a potential pullback in supply in order to try to bolster the energy commodity. A lack of action may leave glut concerns to dominate sentiment and could keep pressure on the crude benchmarks.

Meanwhile, the precious metals have succumb to some surprising weakness in early trade today. Silver at present is posting a significant loss of close to 2 percent with a void of clear catalysts in sight. This also comes in spite of a relatively lackluster session for their US Dollar counterpart. A potential explanation may rest with repositioning from traders near a key technical level and a desire to flatten positions ahead of the US Thanksgiving holiday.

The US holiday also means an absence of major US data over the session ahead. Yet it also brings thin liquidity and a greater capacity for a dominant group to move the market; which may spell heightened volatility for gold and silver.

ECONOMIC EVENTS

No major US data is due over the session. Please refer to the DailyFX Economic Calendar for the events into the end of the week.

Market Movements (Wed 26 Nov, 2014, Close 5PM EST)

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude is testing a critical support region with indications of a downtrend persisting (descending trendline, 20 SMA). This leaves downside risks to remain and suggests a break could open 70.80 (the August ’10 Low). A daily close above 77.00 would be required to warn of a base for the commodity.

Crude Oil: Testing Critical Support Region

Crude Crumbles On OPEC Inaction Speculation, Silver Slips

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold remains at a crossroads as trend indicators warn of building upside momentum (20 SMA and ROC). Yet it is still capped below key resistance at 1,208 (also the 61.8% Fib.). This leaves a clearer setup desired to offer a more concrete technical bias.

The DailyFX SpeculativeSentimentIndex suggests a mixed bias for gold based on trader positioning.

Gold: At A Crossroads Below Key Resistance With Trend Indicators Pointing Higher

Crude Crumbles On OPEC Inaction Speculation, Silver Slips

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Silver’s ascent appears to have been capped at the 16.70 mark (former support-turned-resistance). It was the last obstacle to a more sustained advance after clearing the 50% Fib., 20 SMA, and descending trendline. The failure to breach the barrier suggests the bears may be unprepared to relinquish their grip on the metal. This in turn opens the prospect of a short-term pullback.

Silver: Fails At Final Hurdle

Crude Crumbles On OPEC Inaction Speculation, Silver Slips

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COPPER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Copper has continued its impulsive swings, which has left a Hammer formation in its path. Yet the key reversal pattern awaits confirmation from a successive up-period before indicating the prospect of a recovery. Moreover, caution is suggested when adopting fresh positioning given the commodity’s tendency towards volatility over recent months.

Copper: Choppiness Suggests Caution Required

Crude Crumbles On OPEC Inaction Speculation, Silver Slips

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

PALLADIUM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Palladium is struggling to sustain its recent gains at the 38.2% Fib. This has left a pair of Dojis in its path. However, the candlestick formations are not considered key reversal patterns. Alongside signs of an emerging uptrend a pullback remains questionable.

Palladium: Struggles Sub The 38.2% Fib.

Crude Crumbles On OPEC Inaction Speculation, Silver Slips

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

PLATINUM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Platinum continues to struggle to lift-off from the 1,187 floor despite a Bullish Engulfing pattern lying in its wake. This the bears are still unprepared to relinquish their grip on the metal and may continue to pull it towards its recent lows.

Platinum: Bears Pull Prices Towards Recent Lows

Crude Crumbles On OPEC Inaction Speculation, Silver Slips

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Written by David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst, DailyFX

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Euro Heading Into Turbulent Fundamental Seas

Talking Points:

  • Dollar: US Capital Markets are Closed, But Not the Currency
  • Euro Heading Into Turbulent Fundamental Seas
  • Yen Crosses Far More Sensitive to Policy Comments with Risk Sidelined

Dollar: US Capital Markets are Closed, But Not the Currency

With the US heading into its Thanksgiving holiday, liquidity was seen draining from the system. Given that a sentiment benchmark like the S&P 500 has traded to a fresh record high this week, a measure of book balancing and volume would be expected as investors remove some risk during the downtime. Yet, it seems complacency is has overridden standard trade practices. Through Wednesday’s session, volume from US capital markets was generally restrained and the high-risk group showed little settlement. The Dollar, on the other hand, would experience a slip through the close. The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar) dropped back from its five-year high framed by a weak showing in data and the lights going out in US banks. Which factor carried more sway will tell us how far this pullback extends.

Cramming in three days’ worth of data into the final active session of the week, the US docket offered a broad array of updates. On the softer side: durable goods orders unexpectedly dropped when transport items were excluded; pending and new home sales came in under expectations; jobless claims jumped to a near three-month high; and both personal incomes and spending in October grew less than expected. Beyond the diminished view of growth forecasts this round of data facilities, it also dims the forecast for that first Fed rate hike. And yet, the market didn’t seem too convinced by the round of event risk. There was little change in the implied rate forecast measured in Treasuries, swaps, Eurodollar and Fed Fund futures. This is no doubt partly due to the market’s existing discount to the forecasts from Fed surveys and the group itself. The PCE deflator – the Fed’s preferred inflation series – likely also contributed. The year-over-year core reading unexpectedly quickened pace to 1.6 percent for the strongest reading since December 2012.

Euro Heading Into Turbulent Fundamental Seas

The effects of a drained US market session on a global FX market that is increasingly steered by monetary policy rather than the transmission of risk trends from one session to the next will be weighed by Euro traders in the upcoming session. The currency’s economic docket is loaded with the kind of scheduled event risk that can materially escalate or tame speculation of an impending stimulus upgrade by the European Central Bank (ECB). With the bank’s balance sheet leveling off rather than growing to meet President Draghi’s €1 trillion increase target and Council members like Constancio suggesting a decision on QE will be made in the coming quarter, market participants are looking to discount the probability of sovereign bond purchases moving forward. Today’s calendar items will hit all the high points. From the region’s largest economy, we have German November employment and consumer inflation statistics on tap. For the Eurozone, sentiment surveys and a financial stability report are important updates. We also have ECB President Draghi due to speakwith Weidmann (who often conflicts the dove) just after.

Yen Crosses Far More Sensitive to Policy Comments with Risk Sidelined

There is no doubt that the Yen crosses maintain a strong correlation to traditional sentiment changes. The 20-day correlation between the Nikkei 225 and USDJPY is currently 0.96 (extraordinarily strong and positive). However, that common guidance through appetite for return doesn’t mean the currency is anchored alongside the index – which will feel the effects of the New York market’s absence. A dense round of data is due for release Friday morning, but the more effective spark for the Yen is commentary from policy officials. Vows by the government and BoJ reinforce a state of building stimulus; but the offhand remarks of an over-extended Yen decline (Aso) have clearly unnerved bulls.

New Zealand Dollar: RBNZ Intervention Efforts Fade

This morning, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) reported its net FX intervention effort for the month of October. Against a boosted capacity of NZ$10.02 billion, the central bank reported that it only sold a net NZ$1 million last month. That is hardly a ripple in the FX market. That is on one hand encouraging for the RBNZ as it means the depreciation of the past six months is more self-sustaining. Alternatively, it may embolden carry appetite to fight the intervention. If the NZIER’s forecast for no hikes until 2016 is realized, it may obviate this pressure.

US Oil Drops to Fresh Four-Year Low Ahead of OPEC Meeting

The strong jump in WTI oil prices to end last week was quickly squashed. Crude prices have tumbled through the week and this morning have pushed the benchmark futures contract to a fresh four-year low below $73. The renewed bearish drive – in a five month trend – comes amid reports that OPEC members have been unable or unwilling to agree to supply cuts ahead of the official meeting today. A glut of inventory combined with softer growth forecasts (demand) have led to this remarkable bear trend and a large wealth increase in consumer nations.

Emerging Markets: Russian Ruble Collapses a Second Session Towards Record Low

The MSCI Emerging Market ETF jumped 1.3 percent Wednesday on tepid volume. Guided by the general drift higher in Developed World capital market trends, for a modest appeasement without committing to full blown optimism. There remains more drama on the FX side. The Brazilian Real and South African Rand are trying to fight bearish trends, but aren’t going far. Meanwhile USDRUB is just off record highs again.

Gold: How Steady is the Market with Liquidity Drained While Mon Pol Remains Active?

The trading range for spot, derivative and structured product gold markets diminished to virtually nothing through the US close. In these circumstances, a ‘break of necessity’ is highly likely – and that is exactly what we were met with in early Thursday trade. The question from here is whether this move dries up quickly or can keep running. That depends on what progress we find on EZ and Japanese stimulus forecasts.

**Bring the economic calendar to your charts with the DailyFX News App.

ECONOMIC DATA

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS

To see updated SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS for the Majors, visit Technical Analysis Portal

To see updated PIVOT POINT LEVELS for the Majors and Crosses, visit our Pivot Point Table

CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

INTRA-DAY PROBABILITY BANDS 18:00 GMT

v

— Written by: John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact John, email jkicklighter@dailyfx.com. Follow me on twitter at http://www.twitter.com/JohnKicklighter

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EURJPY Correction to Favor Short Scalp Entries Sub-1.48

Talking Points

EUR/JPY Daily

EURJPY Correction to Favor Short Scalp Entries Sub-1.48

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • Strong reaction at April 2013 median line on Thursday / follow through Friday- bearish near-term
  • 5-wave advance off the lows- looking for correction
  • Key near-term support 145.58/68 backed by objectives at 144.50 & 143.40
  • Resistance at 147.40/44, 148.13 & 149.13- bearish invalidation
  • Momentum signature vulnerable sub-70
  • Pending daily RSI support trigger pending- break would be bearish
  • Event Risk Ahead: German CPI tomorrow, Eurozone Employment & CPI Friday

EUR/JPY 2-hour

EURJPY Correction to Favor Short Scalp Entries Sub-1.48

Notes:The reaction off the median line off the April 2013 lows backed by a break of a multi-week pitchfork off the October lows shifts our attention lower in the EURJPY. The pullback found support at the confluence of the 23.6% retracement off the October lows, the former 2013 high and the former upper median line parallel off the September low. Looking to sell this rebound towards the 1.48 handle with a break below the weekly opening range needed to open up the next swing lower. Note that the broader outlook remains constructive and as such we’ll look to treat this as a correction for now.

Bottom Line: look for an exhaustion high to sell with initial scalps targeting the weekly lows. A break sub-145.58 offers further conviction on our near-term outlook with such a scenario targeting subsequent support objectives into the 2013 high-day close at 144.50. A breach above 148.36 puts us neutral with a move surpassing last week’s highs putting the broader upside bias back in focus. Use caution heading into the weekly/monthly close with key data prints out of Germany & the Eurozone likely to fuel added volatility in EUR crosses.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Relevant Data Releases

EURJPY Correction to Favor Short Scalp Entries Sub-1.48

Other Setups in Play:

—Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

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EUR/USD Rebound Vulnerable to Slowing German, Euro-Zone CPI

Talking Points:

- EUR/USD November Range Remains in Focus Ahead of German, Euro-Zone CPI.

- USD/CAD Preserves Bearish RSI Momentum Ahead of Canada 3Q GDP.

- USDOLLAR Slips to Fresh Weekly-Low; RSI Struggles to Push Back Into Overbought Territory.

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EUR/USD

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • EUR/USD may make another run at the monthly low (1.2356) as Germany’s & Euro-Zone’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is expected to show a further slowdown in price growth.
  • Despite growing speculation for a QE announcement at the European Central Bank’s (ECB) December 4 meeting, seems as though Governing Council will be more willing in 1Q 2015 as they prepare for the next take up of the targeted Long-Term Refinancing Operation (T-LTRO).
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd turned net-short EUR/USD on November 25, with the ratio currently holding at -1.28.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD Daily Chart

  • Long-term outlook for USD/CAD remains bullish as the Bank of Canada (BoC) remains reluctant to further normalize monetary policy; need a break of the bearish trend in price & the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to revert back to the approach of looking for opportunities to buy-dips.
  • May see a larger pullback in USD/CAD as it retains the downward channel from earlier this month, but will retain a constructive outlook amid the string of failed attempts to close below the Fibonacci overlap around 1.1220.
  • Will continue to look for a long-term series of higher highs & lows, but need to see a move & closing price back above 1.1310 (38.2% retracement) to 1.1320 (61.8% expansion) to look for fresh highs in USD/CAD.

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Read More:

Price & Time: December Dollar Surprise?

EUR Short Covering Elusive as More Talk of QE Inspires Bears

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

EUR/USD Rebound Vulnerable to Slowing German, Euro-Zone CPIUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index slips to fresh weekly low of 11,308 amid the lackluster data prints coming out of the world’s largest economy; remains vulnerable to month-end flows especially with the Thanksgiving holiday on tap.
  • As the RSI struggles to hold in overbought territory, may see a larger USDOLLAR pullback going into the first full-week of December; will keep a close eye on the monthly opening range especially ahead of the Fed’s December 17 meeting.
  • Fails attempts to close above 11,312 (78.6% retracement) to 11,351 (78.6% expansion) may spur a move back towards 11,120 (161.8% expansion) to 11,138 (61.8% expansion).

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— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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EUR Short Covering Elusive as More Talk of QE Inspires Bears

Talking Points:

- EURUSD can’t climb back into channel from Nov 7 low.

- EURGBP in lower half of triangle sub-0.7900.

- See the ‘high’ importance events on the DailyFX Economic Calendar.

Fundamental pressures are preventing key technical levels from being achieved by Euro bulls. ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio’s latest remarks indicating that a sovereign QE program could be initiated in Q1’15 add another prominent voter to President Draghi’s dovish camp, whose marching beat is ‘the ECB balance sheet will expand to early-2012.’

Considering that the ECB’s balance sheet is roughly €1 trillion short today of its early-2012 levels, market participants (those that have stuck around as illiquid holiday trading conditions set in) have determined that this is a strong enough signal to keep a Euro short covering rally at bay.

Whereas EURAUD is running higher on the back of a weaker Australian Dollar, the other major EUR-based pairs – EURGBP, EURJPY, and EURUSD – aren’t offering as promising of a technical picture. See the above video for technical considerations..

Read more: USDOLLAR Yet to Reach 11370 Target; AUD/USD Breaches Triangle Support

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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