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News

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AUD/USD Vulnerable to Weak 2Q CPI Report; Key Support Zones in Focus

- Australia Consumer Price Index (CPI) to Increase for Second Straight Quarter.

- Headline Inflation of 3.0% Would Mark the Fastest Pace of Growth Since 4Q 2011.

Trading the News: Australia Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Australia’s 2Q Consumer Price Index (CPI) may trigger a near-term breakout in the AUD/USD should the data print put increased pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later.

What’s Expected:

AUD/USD CPI

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Why Is This Event Important:

Another uptick in the headline reading for inflation may undermine the neutral tone held by RBA Governor Glenn Stevens as price growth comes up against the upper bounds of the central bank’s 1-3% target band, and the AUD/USD may continue to mark fresh 2014 highs in the second-half of the year should a growing number of officials adopt a more hawkish tone for monetary policy.

Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario

The pickup in the growth rate along with the improvement in the labor market may generate a strong inflation print, and heightening price pressures in Australia may heighten the appeal of the higher-yielding currency as it limits the central bank’s scope to further reduce the benchmark interest rate.

Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario

However, subdued wage growth paired with the downturn in private sector consumption may limit the upside risk for inflation, and a dismal CPI report may ultimately push the AUD/USD back down towards the key 0.9200 handle as it drags on interest rate expectations.

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How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bullish AUD Trade: CPI Advances to Annualized 3.0% on Higher

  • Need green, five-minute candle following the statement for a potential long AUD/USD trade
  • If market reaction favors a long aussie trade, buy AUD/USD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to breakeven on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit

Bearish AUD Trade: 2Q Inflation Report Disappoints

  • Need red, five-minute candle to consider a short AUD/USD position
  • Carry out the same setup as the bullish aussie trade, just in the opposite direction

Potential Price Targets For The Release

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AUD/USD Daily Chart

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • May Fail to Retain Current Range Should 2Q CPI Heavily Impact RBA policy outlook
  • Interim Resistance: 0.9500 (38.2% retracement) to 0.9520 (78.6% retracement)
  • Interim Support: 0.9330 (61.8% expansion) to 0.9340 (61.8% retracement)

Read More:

GBPJPY Eyes Major Inflection Zone- Weekly Opening Range in Focus

NZDCAD Testing Range Support Ahead of RBNZ- 9285 Key

Impact that Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report has had on AUD during the last release

1Q 2014Australia Consumer Price Index (CPI)

AUD/USD Vulnerable to Weak 2Q CPI Report; Key Support Zones in Focus

Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed an annualized 2.9% in the first quarter after expanding 2.7% during the last three-months of 2013, while the core rate of inflation held steady at 2.6% amid forecasts for a 2.9% print. The weaker-than-expected CPI report dragged on the Australian dollar, with the AUD/USD slipping below the 0.9300 handle, and the higher-yielding currency struggled to holds its ground throughout the day as the pair closed at 0.9286.

— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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NZDCAD Testing Range Support Ahead of RBNZ- 9285 Key

Talking Points

  • NZDCAD testing key support- June/July range at risk
  • Weekly opening range in focus- break to validate scalp bias
  • Major event risk on tap this tomorrow from New Zealand & Canada

NZDCAD Daily Chart

NZDCAD Testing Range Support Ahead of RBNZ- 9285 Key

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • NZDCAD at key range support 9285/91- bullish invalidation
  • Resistance at 9351, 9402, 9468/74- bearish invalidation
  • Support break targets objectives at 9233, 9155/75, 9096
  • Look for daily RSI rebound ahead of 40- constructive
  • Topside momentum trigger pending
  • Event Risk Ahead: Canadian Retail Sales tomorrow morning and RBNZ Interest Rate Decision and Trade Balance data tomorrow evening

NZDCAD 30min Chart

NZDCAD Testing Range Support Ahead of RBNZ- 9285 Key

Notes: The NZDCAD has held a well-defined range since mid-June and the pair is now testing key support at the lower bounds at 9285/90. This threshold is defined by the July opening rang low, the 61.8% retracement of the May advance and the 38.2% Fibonacci extension off of the 2014 high and will serve as our bullish invalidation level.

Bottom line: We’ll favor buying dips while above 9285/90 with a breach above the weekly opening range high at 9356/63 offering further conviction on long exposure. A break/close below invalidates this particular setup with such a scenario eyeing subsequent targets into more significant support at 9155/75.

Caution is warranted as we head into event risk tomorrow from both Canada and New Zealand with the RBNZ interest rate decision likely to fuel added volatility in kiwi crosses. Follow the progress of this trade setup and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Key Threshold Grid

*ORH: Opening Range High

*ORL: Opening Range Low

Other Setups in Play:

—Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

Join Michael for Live Scalping Webinars this week Tuesday – Thursday on DailyFX Plus (Exclusive of Live Clients) at 12:30 GMT (8:30ET)

Interested in learning about Fibonacci? Watch this Video

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GBP/USD Range in Focus Ahead of BoE; Has EUR/USD Made a Lower-Low?

Talking Points:

- EUR/USD Comes Up Against Key 1.3450-60 Zone; Lower-Low in Place?

- GBP/USD to Face Larger Correction on Unanimous BoE Vote

- USDOLLAR Falls Back From Fresh Monthly High as U.S. Core Inflation Slows

EUR/USD:

  • Slips to a fresh yearly low of 1.3457; outlooks remains bearish as the EUR/USD continues to carve lower highs & lows while Relative Strength Index (RSI) retains downward trend.
  • Despite the lack of fundamental event risk coming out of the euro-area, looks as though market players continue to favor selling the EUR/USD despite the weak data prints out of the U.S.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) stands at 1.6233 after flipping into positive territory .

GBP/USD:

  • Looks poised to hold above the 1.7020-30 region as it continues to trade above the July low (1.7035).
  • Bank of England (BoE) Minutes to heavily influence near-term outlook for GBP/USD as market participants look for a growing dissent within the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).
  • BoE may continue to favor a stronger British Pound as it helps to achieve price stability.

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GBP/USD Range in Focus Ahead of BoE; Has EUR/USD Made a Lower-Low?

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Read More:

Price & Time: Key Test for the Euro

Managing USD Expectations with EUR/USD, USD/CAD (but not USD/JPY)

USDOLLAR Daily

GBP/USD Range in Focus Ahead of BoE; Has EUR/USD Made a Lower-Low?

Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index advances to a fresh monthly high despite the unexpected downtick in the core rate of inflation.
  • Looks as though Fed will retain a dovish tone for monetary policy as the stickiness in the headline reading for inflation was largely driven by higher energy costs.
  • Nevertheless, close above 10,440 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) should bring up 10,470 next.
  • Interim Resistance: 10,508 (61.8% retracement) to 10,524 (38.2% retracement)
  • Interim Support: 10,354 (Oct. low) to 10,375 (50.0& retracement)

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David’s e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

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Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums

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Dollar Surges, but Two Key Risks Warn of Euro Bounce

- The US Dollar trades at key highs, but we see two key risks for the Greenback

- Extreme positioning and low FX volatility support case for Dollar pullback

- Strategy remains to trade major support and resistance levels on big pairs

The US Dollar trades at yearly highs versus the Euro and is strengthening versus other major counterparts, but these two key factors favor a Dollar pullback.

Put simply, there are two key factors against a major Dollar break higher versus the Euro at these levels.

First: current market conditions warn that few traders are positioning or envisioning a major USD move. In fact our DailyFX Volatility Indices, which track prices paid/received on FX options, remain near record-lows. No one is betting on or hedging against major Dollar moves.

Short-Term Forex Volatility Expectations Continue to Trade near Record Lows

Dollar Surges, but Two Key Risks Warn of Euro Bounce

Data source: Bloomberg, DailyFX Calculations

Second and just as importantly: we’re seeing important signs that FX positioning and sentiment have become very stretched. Recent futures positioning data shows that large speculators are their most short EURUSD since it traded above $1.30 through mid-2013. Our retail speculator-based trader sample is likewise at its most stretched since the same lows, and the confluence warns of a potentially significant turn.

Retail FX Speculators are their Most Net-Long EURUSD Since May, 2013

Dollar Surges, but Two Key Risks Warn of Euro Bounce

Source: FXCM Retail FX Positioning Data, Prepared by David Rodriguez.

These two factors are no guarantee that price will turn. Yet we trade on probabilities: the coincidence of key warnings suggests that US Dollar pairs may stick to broad trading ranges.

Thus from a trading perspective we’ll look to major support and resistance to hold and perhaps get short the US Dollar versus major counterparts. For the Euro, our Senior Strategist notes that a close below $1.3460 would point to a much more substantial breakdown. Absent such a break however, our focus remains on a EURUSD bounce.

See the table below for full rundown on a per-currency pair basis and keep track of changing conditions with future e-mail updates via my distribution list.

DailyFX Individual Currency Pair Conditions and Trading Strategy Bias

Dollar Surges, but Two Key Risks Warn of Euro Bounce

Dollar Surges, but Two Key Risks Warn of Euro Bounce

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Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive the Speculative Sentiment Index and other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up to David’s e-mail distribution list via this link.

Contact David via Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/DRodriguezFX

Definitions

Volatility Percentile – The higher the number, the more likely we are to see strong movements in price. This number tells us where current implied volatility levels stand in relation to the past 90 days of trading. We have found that implied volatilities tend to remain very high or very low for extended periods of time. As such, it is helpful to know where the current implied volatility level stands in relation to its medium-term range.

Trend – This indicator measures trend intensity by telling us where price stands in relation to its 90 trading-day range. A very low number tells us that price is currently at or near 90-day lows, while a higher number tells us that we are near the highs. A value at or near 50 percent tells us that we are at the middle of the currency pair’s 90-day range.

Range High – 90-day closing high.

Range Low – 90-day closing low.

Last – Current market price.

Bias – Based on the above criteria, we assign the more likely profitable strategy for any given currency pair. A highly volatile currency pair (Volatility Percentile very high) suggests that we should look to use Breakout strategies. More moderate volatility levels and strong Trend values make Momentum trades more attractive, while the lowest Vol Percentile and Trend indicator figures make Range Trading the more attractive strategy.

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES IS MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION.

OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. The FXCM group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance contained in the trading signals, or in any accompanying chart analyses.

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Managing USD Expectations with EUR/USD, USD/CAD (but not USD/JPY)

Talking Points:

- USDOLLAR Index attempts to move higher, but be cautious.

- ‘Not all USD-pairs are created equal’ – ie USDJPY is not ideal.

- Reminder that July forex seasonals in QE era work against USD.

For the second day in a row the European economic calendar was particularly barren, but event risk traders will find solace in several potentially market moving data releases out of the United States this morning.

Considering the importance of inflation to the Federal Reserve’s ‘lower for longer’ interest rate policy, the 12:30 GMT release of the June US Consumer Price Index is probably the most important event on the calendar this morning (ancillary US housing data is due at 14:00 GMT).

In recent weeks, Fed Chair Yellen has described the recent uptick in price pressures as ‘noisy,’ if only to downplay the likelihood that the Fed will hike interest rates in the first half of 2015. However, with the US labor market exceeding even the Fed’s optimistic projections, further upside inflation pressures will only incentivize traders to position themselves for higher short-term rates in the near-future.

While the USDOLLAR Index may be ticking higher the past several days, it’s worth pointing out that ‘all USD-pairs are not created equal.’ We say that because, on a relative basis, there are still some currencies outperforming the US Dollar, or at least keeping pace (see: USDJPY’s 2% range over the past five months).

Instead, as the technical video above outlines, it’s important to be selective with USD-pair exposure. If the buck weakens, attention should immediately turn to USDJPY. But if the greenback is to get stronger, EURUSD (breaking its July 2012-July 2013 uptrend) and USDCAD (attempting to break through the March-June downtrend) are both better positioned to express USD strength.

Read more: EUR/USD Breakdown, GBP/CAD, USD/CAD Breakouts Eyed this Week

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Crude Looks To US Inventories, Gold Suffers As Safe-Haven Demand Ebbs

Talking Points

  • Gold and silver vulnerable as traders look past geopolitical tensions
  • Crude oil faces volatility with US inventories data ahead
  • Palladium plunges as Russian supply disruption fears ease

WTI is edging higher in late Asian trading with the commodity potentially set for a volatile session on the back of upcoming US inventories data. Meanwhile, the precious metals could come under further pressure as geopolitical tensions prove insufficient to yield a shift in market sentiment.

Traders Look Past Ukraine, Gaza

Gold and silver continue to drift lower during the Asian session as elevated geopolitical tensions fail to bolster safe-haven demand for the precious metals. At this stage the developments in Ukraine and Gaza don’t appear to hold the requisite ‘fear factor’ to yield a broad shift in sentiment. This places gold and silver in a precarious position as traders may be tempted to unwind fear-driven positioning in the alternative assets.

Palladium may stand to suffer the most amongst its precious metals siblings, given its heightened sensitivity to developments in Eastern Europe. Fears over supply disruptions from Russia (the world’s largest producer of the commodity), had likely offered some support to the commodity earlier in the week. However, with export sanctions from the West unlikely at this point, palladium may be left vulnerable to a correction. The commodity has managed to pare earlier losses in Asian trading today after plunging by more than 1 percent.

Crude Looks To US Inventories, Gold Suffers As Safe-Haven Demand Ebbs

Crude Turning The Page On A New Chapter

WTI traders are eagerly awaiting the release of US inventories data over the session ahead. The Weekly Petroleum Status Report from the Department of Energy is tipped to reveal a fourth consecutive decline in total crude inventories (median estimate: -2.8 million barrels). A bullish inventories report may stand to offset some of the pressure that the commodity has faced this week on the back of easing Russian supply disruption fears.

The supply and demand story for US oil looks to be turning the page on a new chapter as a pickup in refinery utilization stands to absorb a glut in total inventories. Expectations for a robust US economic recovery is the critical component required to give the narrative some weight. If incoming data from the world’s largest consumer of the commodity points to the potential for healthy demand, it could keep WTI elevated. However, with crude production at its highest rate since 1988 there remains a risk that the flood of fresh supply could limit the potential for upside gains.

Crude Looks To US Inventories, Gold Suffers As Safe-Haven Demand Ebbs

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The risk remains to the downside for crude following a failure to push back above the 23.6% Fib Level at 103.76. The short-term downtrend as signaled by the 20 SMA is intact, which puts the immediate focus on the 101.36 mark.

Crude Oil: Downside Risk Remains

Crude Looks To US Inventories, Gold Suffers As Safe-Haven Demand Ebbs

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The push back above the 38.2% Fib Level at 1,305 for gold has left some conflicting signals for the precious metal. The upside break and Harami pattern suggests the potential for further strength. However, with resistance nearby at 1,330 and signs of a downtrend emerging (20 SMA), waiting for a clearer technical picture is preferred before adopting new positions.

The DailyFX SpeculativeSentimentIndex suggests a bullish bias for gold based on trader positioning.

Gold: Awaiting Guidance Between Key Levels

Crude Looks To US Inventories, Gold Suffers As Safe-Haven Demand Ebbs

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Silver has failed to hold above the critical 21.10 mark suggesting the bears are unprepared to relinquish their grip on prices at this stage. A break back below 20.83 (23.6% Fib) would be required to shift the immediate risk to the downside.

Silver: Struggles At Key Resistance

Crude Looks To US Inventories, Gold Suffers As Safe-Haven Demand Ebbs

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COPPER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Copper’s recent retracement is seen as an opportunity to enter new short positions, given bearish technical signals remain for the commodity. The break below the ascending trend channel and push below the 20 SMA favor a retest of the 3.19 mark. A daily close above 3.23 would invalidate a bearish bias.

Copper: Bounce Offers New Short Entries

Crude Looks To US Inventories, Gold Suffers As Safe-Haven Demand Ebbs

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

PALLADIUM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Playing palladium’s uptrend remains preferred with the prospect of a run on the psychologically-significant 900 handle over the near-term still looking likely. The drop below 875 is likely to find some support at 861, which may offer a fresh opportunity for new long positions.

Palladium: Pullback Offers New Long Entry Opportunities

Crude Looks To US Inventories, Gold Suffers As Safe-Haven Demand Ebbs

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

PLATINUM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

While platinum has maintained a slight upward trajectory over recent months, more recent price action has been relatively rough, which leaves a mixed technical bias for the commodity.

Platinum: Awaiting Guidance As Recent Volatility Yields Mixed Signals

Crude Looks To US Inventories, Gold Suffers As Safe-Haven Demand Ebbs

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Written by David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst, DailyFX

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