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Euro May Look Past CPI Data, NZ Dollar Down on Building Permits Drop

Talking Points:

  • Euro May Look Past October’s Flash EZ CPI on Limited ECB Implications
  • NZ Dollar Down as Building Permits Slump Undercuts RBNZ Rate Hike Bets
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

October’s preliminary Eurozone CPI reading headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. Expectations call for a print at 0.4 percent on the benchmark year-on-year inflation rate, marking a slight improvement after the five-year low of 0.3 percent recorded in August and maintained in September. The outcome may not yield a meaningful response from the Euro absent a wild deviation from consensus forecasts considering its limited implications for the near-term trajectory of ECB monetary policy.

Indeed, Mario Draghi and company are still in the implementation phase of a medley of stimulus efforts and will likely want to see how things progress for some time after everything is in place. That means additional easing probably will not materialize at least until next year, putting the central bank on auto-pilot in the interim. We remain short EURUSD.

The US Dollar outperformed in overnight trade in a move that probably reflected follow-on from a strong set of third-quarter US GDP figures released earlier in the day. The upbeat report reinforced a comparatively hawkish FOMC policy announcement earlier in the week, helping to scatter speculation that the Fed will delay raising interest rates until 2016 having concluded its QE3 stimulus program.

The New Zealand Dollar was weakest on the session after a report showed Building Permits unexpectedly tumbled 12.2 percent in September, marking the largest drop in over two years. The result likely reinforced perceptions that a buoyant housing market will pressure the RBNZ to raise rates in the near-term. The Japanese Yen also traded lower as the US GDP figure lifted Asian equities amid hopes for stronger export demand and undermined the appeal of the safety-linked currency.

New to FX? START HERE!

Asia Session

European Session

Critical Levels

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

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Silver Slumps To Fresh 2014 Low, WTI Within Striking Distance Of $80

Talking Points

Silver has stolen the limelight in the precious metals space after plunging by over 3 percent on Thursday. A number of factors likely contributed to the precipitous drop. These include strong US data raising the attractiveness of high-yielding investments, as well further digestion of the Fed’s decision to end its enormous asset purchase program earlier in the week.

Looking ahead; it may be difficult for gold and silver to find catalysts to renew buying interest. Firmer Fed policy normalization expectations have raised the hurdle for upcoming US data to disappoint and drag the USD lower (which would be positive for the metals). Nonetheless, given the magnitude of recent declines, profit-taking on short positions and a consolidation for gold and silver should not be precluded.

Similarly, crude oil benchmarks may be left lacking positive fundamental cues over the session ahead. Lingering supply glut concerns likely contributed to a slump of close to 1 percent for WTI in recent trading, and may continue to keep pressure on the commodity going forward.

Finally, copper retreated further on Thursday amid a void of fresh news flow on the Indonesian mining workers strike. The absence of supportive supply side cues leaves hopes of a recovery to hang on robust demand signals. This puts upcoming OfficialManufacturing figures from China, the largest consumer of the commodity in focus. Yet even still the threshold for Chinese data to impress the copper bulls appears high, as demonstrated by the responses to recent top-tier releases from the Asian giant.

ECONOMIC EVENTS

Silver Slumps To Fresh 2014 Low, WTI Within Striking Distance Of $80

Source:DailyFX Economic Calendar, Times In GMT

Market Movements (Thu 30 Oct, 2014, Close 5PM EST)

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude remains contained below the 84.00 barrier and within striking distance of the critical 80.00 floor. Alongside a core downtrend (descending trendline, 20 SMA, ROC) a daily close below the 80.00 barrier would be required to open the 2012 low near 77.00.

Crude Oil: Awaiting Break Below Psychologically-Significant Barrier

Silver Slumps To Fresh 2014 Low, WTI Within Striking Distance Of $80

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold’s latest slump has seen trend indicators align with other bearish signals. Prices have crossed below the 20 SMAand the ROC is now in negative territory. With a short-term downtrend in force the break below the 1,208 barrier suggests a possible revisit of the 2014 low near 1,180.

The DailyFX SpeculativeSentimentIndex suggests a mixed bias for gold based on trader positioning.

Gold: Trend Indicators Align With Broader Bearish Backdrop

Silver Slumps To Fresh 2014 Low, WTI Within Striking Distance Of $80

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Silver remains in respect of trendline resistance and its dramatic crash through the 16.70 floor keeps the immediate risks lower. Clearance of the 16.50 barrier would pave the way for a descent on the late February 2010 low near 15.60.

Silver: Respect of Trendline Resistance Keeps Immediate Risks Lower

Silver Slumps To Fresh 2014 Low, WTI Within Striking Distance Of $80

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COPPER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

An Evening Star has emerged following Copper’s retreat from trendline resistance. The key reversal pattern suggests some scope for further weakness. Yet traders should be wary of prematurely adopting short positions given indications of an uptrend from the 20 SMA and ROCpersist.

Copper: Awaiting Greater Confluence Of Technical Signals

Silver Slumps To Fresh 2014 Low, WTI Within Striking Distance Of $80

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

PALLADIUM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

An Evening Star has emerged following palladium’s pullback from the 38.2% Fib.near 800. Confirmation of the reversal signal from a successive down-period would warn of a deeper correction. Buying interest appears evident near 775, which if broken may open a descent on the October lows near 735.

Palladium: Bearish Reversal Signal Emerges After Retreat From 38.2% Fib.

Silver Slumps To Fresh 2014 Low, WTI Within Striking Distance Of $80

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

PLATINUM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Platinum continues to consolidate within the 1,242 to 1,289 range that has contained the precious metal over the past several weeks. With trend indicators swaying a breakout from the recent trading band would be desired to offer a clearer directional bias.

Platinum: Awaiting Breakout From Narrow Trading Band

Silver Slumps To Fresh 2014 Low, WTI Within Striking Distance Of $80

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Written by David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst, DailyFX

To receive David’sanalysis directly via email, please sign up here

Contact and follow David on Twitter: @DaviddeFe

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USDJPY Presses Resistance Ahead of BoJ- Support at 108.87

Talking Points

USD/JPY Daily Chart

USDJPY Presses Resistance Ahead of BoJ- Support at 108.87

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

  • USDJPY approaching yearly highs / key resistance ahead of BoJ / November open
  • Resistance at 109.52/59- Breach targets resistance objectives at 110.08 & 110.50
  • Support at October trendline, 107.63, 106.24 & 105.88
  • Key support / broader bullish invalidation 105.44/57
  • Daily RSI reversal ahead of 40 / 60-breach – constructive
  • Multiple momentum resistance triggers pending- look for reaction
  • Event Risk Ahead: Japanese Jobless Rate, CPI & Bank of Japan Rate Decision tonight and US Personal Income/Spending & University of Michigan Confidence tomorrow

USD/JPY 30min Chart

USDJPY Presses Resistance Ahead of BoJ- Support at 108.87

Notes: The USDJPY is trading within the confines of a well-defined Andrew’s Pitchfork formation off the October lows with a clear break of the weekly opening range yesterday (post-FOMC) shifting the focus to the topside. The rally has now taken the pair into key resistance just shy of the 2014 highs. Long exposure is at risk heading into 109.52/59 with a breach (on a close basis) needed to maintain our topside scalp bias.

Bottom line: Look for short triggers ahead of 109.60 with a move sub-108.87 / pitchfork support offering further conviction for our near-term scalp bias. A breach above 109.60 invalidates the short-bias with such a scenario eyeing the 2014 high at 110.08 and beyond. Caution is warranted heading into key event risk with the Japanese jobless claims, inflation and the Bank of Japan interest rate decision on tap this evening. Follow the progress of trade setups like these and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.

* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.

Key Threshold Grid

*ORH: Opening Range High

*ORL: Opening Range Low

Other Setups in Play:

—Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

Join Michael for Live Scalping Webinars on Mondays on DailyFX and Tuesday – Thursdays on DailyFX Plus (Exclusive of Live Clients) at 12:30 GMT (8:30ET)

Interested in learning about Fibonacci? Watch this Video

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Ranges Persist in USD-Pairs Post-FOMC Meeting

Talking Points:

- AUDUSD can’t quite break through $0.8900.

- EURUSD, GBPUSD stuck in month-long ranges.

- Target on US Dollar’s Back this Week with FOMC, GDP Due

The FOMC threw the US Dollar a bone yesterday by leaving its name absent from its policy statement. Weeks earlier, policymakers queued the US Dollar up for disappointment, when it laid partial blame on the greenback for why inflation expectations have been floundering.

The tune laid out yesterday was quite different. Acknowledging only that market-measures of inflation were down and that survey-measures were stable, the Fed did not include any commentary regarding threats to the domestic inflation picture due to disinflation among trading partners or the strength of the US Dollar.

If anything, this small lifeline to the greenback has prevented a major covering rally in the short-term. Futures positioning remains aggressively long, and the retail crowd has started to shift into net-long USD positions. While the US Dollar may have been on the verge of technical weakness 24-hours ago, time has been bought and many of the ranges carved out over the past month have held.

See the above video for the technical implications in AUDUSD, EURUSD, and GBPUSD, as we shift focus to longer-term setups as we wait for the recent ranges to break.

Read more: Trade Setups in EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD Ahead of FOMC Meeting

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

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Euro May Look Past German Data, US GDP Dip Unlikely to Derail Dollar

Talking Points:

  • Euro Unlikely to Find Lasting Cues in German Unemployment, CPI Reports
  • US 3Q GDP Slowdown May Not Amount to Major Setback for the US Dollar
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

German Unemployment and CPI reports headline the economic calendar in European hours. Jobless ranks are expected to shrink by 4,000 in October, keeping the unemployment rate unchanged at 6.7 percent. Separately, the benchmark inflation rate is expected to edge higher to 0.9 percent after lingering at a four-year low of 0.8 percent through the third quarter.

On balance, neither data release seems likely to produce a lasting response from the Euro considering the outcomes’ limited implications for near-term ECB monetary policy. The central bank is still in the implementation phase of a medley of stimulus efforts and will likely want to see how things progress for some time after everything is in place. That means additional easing probably won’t materialize until next year, putting policy on auto-pilot in the interim.

Looking ahead, third-quarter US GDP figures will enter the spotlight. An annualized increase of 3 percent is expected, marking a slowdown from the 4.6 percent gain recorded in the three months through June. The latter number may have been exaggerated on a comparative basis by the weather-linked slump in the first three month of the year. With that in mind, a pullback closer to but still above the post-crisis average (2.2 percent) may not prove to be a major setback for the US Dollar, particularly after a seemingly confident FOMC opted against a dovish rhetoric shift at yesterday’s monetary policy announcement (as expected). We remain short EURUSD and long USDCHF.

New to FX? START HERE!

Asia Session

European Session

Critical Levels

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive Ilya’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

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Gold Remains Exposed On US GDP, Natural Gas Faces Further Volatility

Talking Points

Gold slumped by over 1 percent on Wednesday as FOMC-inspired gains for the greenback dragged the precious metals lower. A focus on improvements in the US labor market and less concern over disinflation risks in the committee’s statement likely reinvigorated the US Dollar bulls.

Looking ahead, US Third Quarter GDP figures are tipped to reveal a healthy annualized 3 percent rise. Robust US data may reinforce the prospect of the Fed moving further towards policy normalization. This in turn could offer further fuel to the greenback and place further pressure on gold and silver.

Turning to the energy commodities; crude oil benchmarks witnessed modest gains in recent trading with newswires citing a positive set of US Inventories figures as a potential catalyst. However, the latest DOE data also revealed a climb in crude production to a fresh multi-decade high. This suggests oil’s recent climb may simply reflect trader repositioning near a critical technical barrier, rather than bullish fundamental cues. While supply glut concerns continue to linger the scope for a recovery for crude may be limited.

Meanwhile, natural gas pricesposted a solid gain of over 3 percent on Wednesday with media sources reporting a forecast shift to colder US weather conditions over the next week. Storage injection data due over the session ahead may set the energy commodity up for further volatility. Recent readings have printed substantially higher than the seasonal average, which has bolstered expectations over ample supplies heading into the US winter. Another above average print could keep these concerns alive and suppress further gains for prices.

Finally, copper has stabilized in recent trade with fresh reports on the Indonesian copper miner’s strike lacking. The story deserves to be monitored for fresh developments that could bolster speculation of production crimps. These could offer a short-term influence on prices, however the lasting impact of such events is often limited.

ECONOMIC EVENTS

Gold Remains Exposed On US GDP, Natural Gas Faces Further Volatility

Source:DailyFX Economic Calendar, Times In GMT

Market Movements (Wed 29 Oct, 2014, Close 5PM EST)

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude remains contained below the 84.00 barrier and within striking distance of the critical 80.00 floor. While a Hammerformation has been left in its wake, the bullish signal may find limited follow-through given recent reversal patterns have been met with a lackluster response from traders. Alongside a core downtrend (descending trendline, 20 SMA, ROC) a daily close below the 80.00 barrier would be required to open the 2012 low near 77.00.

Crude Oil: Awaiting Break Below Psychologically-Significant Barrier

Gold Remains Exposed On US GDP, Natural Gas Faces Further Volatility

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold’s latest slump has seen trend indicators align with other bearish signals. Prices have crossed below the 20 SMAand the ROC is now in negative territory. With a short-term downtrend in force a break below the 1,208 barrier would suggest a possible revisit of the 2014 low near 1,180.

The DailyFX SpeculativeSentimentIndex suggests a mixed bias for gold based on trader positioning.

Gold: Trend Indicators Align With Broader Bearish Backdrop

Gold Remains Exposed On US GDP, Natural Gas Faces Further Volatility

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Silver remains in respect of trendline resistance and its retreat under the 17.30 floor has generated an Evening Starpattern. While typically a reversal signal from a preceding uptrend, the formation indicates the bears are unprepared to relinquish their control of the precious metal. This casts the immediate risk lower for a revisit of the 16.70 floor. Traders should be mindful that subdued negative momentum reflected by the ROC indicator suggests a clean descent may be difficult.

Silver: Respect of Trendline Resistance Keeps Immediate Risks Lower

Gold Remains Exposed On US GDP, Natural Gas Faces Further Volatility

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COPPER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

A Shooting Starhas emerged following Copper’s retreat from trendline resistance. The key reversal pattern awaits confirmation from an ensuing down-session to turn the focus lower. Traders should be wary of prematurely adopting short positions given indications of an uptrend from the 20 SMA and ROCpersist.

Copper: Shooting Star Awaits Validation To Turn Risks Lower

Gold Remains Exposed On US GDP, Natural Gas Faces Further Volatility

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

PALLADIUM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

A Dojicandlestick reveals the palladium bulls are showing signs of hesitation at the 38.2% Fib.near 800. Yet a more definitive reversal signal is desired to suggest a bearish technical bias for the precious metal. A breakout above the nearby barrier would pave the way for a potential ascent on 821. Downside risks are centered on 775.

Palladium: Rise Encounters Resistance At 38.2% Fib.

Gold Remains Exposed On US GDP, Natural Gas Faces Further Volatility

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

PLATINUM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Platinum continues to consolidate within the 1,242 to 1,289 range that has contained the precious metal over the past several weeks. With trend indicators swaying a breakout from the recent trading band would be desired to offer a clearer directional bias.

Platinum: Awaiting Breakout From Narrow Trading Band

Gold Remains Exposed On US GDP, Natural Gas Faces Further Volatility

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Written by David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst, DailyFX

To receive David’sanalysis directly via email, please sign up here

Contact and follow David on Twitter: @DaviddeFe