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Yen May See Greater Impact from Eurozone PMIs Than the Euro

Talking Points:

  • Soft Eurozone PMI Data May Mean More for Risk Appetite Than the Euro
  • New Zealand Dollar Swooned as Soft CPI Data Sank RBNZ Rate Hike Bets
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The preliminary set of October’s Eurozone PMI figures headlines the economic calendar in European hours. The region-wide composite reading is due to show the pace of manufacturing- and service-sector activity growth slowed for a third consecutive month, yielding the weakest results in 14 months. A soft print may carry greater implications for overall risk appetite than the Euro however.

The ECB seems resigned to complacency in the near term. Financial conditions in the region have deteriorated since mid-September even as the central bank introduced negative deposit rates and conducted its first TLTRO operation. Economic data outcomes swooned relative to expectations over the same period, pointing to trouble on the growth front. In response, ECB officials have counter-intuitively used public speaking opportunities to play down expectations for the upcoming asset purchase program.

On balance, this means that weak PMI readings are unlikely to be a strong negative catalyst for the single currency in as much as they probably won’t herald a forceful near-term response from Mario Draghi and company. Such results may amplify increasingly acute global slowdown fears however, fueling risk aversion and boosting demand for safety-linked assets like the Japanese Yen. We have entered short GBPJPY.

The New Zealand Dollar underperformed in overnight trade, dropping as much as 1.1 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move tracked a slide in New Zealand bond yields as RBNZ interest rate hike bets unwound following a disappointing third-quarter CPI report. The headline year-on-year inflation rate unexpectedly dropped to 1 percent, the lowest in over a year.


Asia Session

European Session

Critical Levels

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

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Dollar Advances Across the Board as Sentiment Breaks, CPI Steady

Talking Points:

  • Dollar Advances Across the Board as Sentiment Breaks, CPI Steady
  • Euro Worst Performing Major Braces for Growth Update
  • British Pound Mixed as Tone of BoE Minutes Softens

Dollar Advances Across the Board as Sentiment Breaks, CPI Steady

A fever of risk appetite in the equities market broke this past session and September inflation statistics for the US printed a steady – if below target – pace. How did the Dollar respond? It climbed further. The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar) rose a second consecutive day, but it was its breadth rather than pace that impressed. Looking across the ‘majors’, the Greenback rose against all of its most liquid pairings. Once again, the fundamental motivations were of questionable provenance. The first slip for the S&P 500 in five trading days – especially after the biggest single day rally in 12 months – was a high profile development for those trading the safe haven currency. However, the Dollar experienced limited connection to the initial sentiment swell; so it is fitting that it would be little motivated by the moderation. Through the equities rally, the appetite for risk never hit a cadence to buoy all markets (suggesting it wasn’t a definitive move), so its correction inherently fall short on the needed intensity of risk aversion to truly leverage the extreme version of safe haven the currency represents.

Comparatively, the changing winds of Fed rate forecasts have proven a more active fuel for the Dollar. That made this past session’s September CPI reading an important release. Considering the market has significantly downgraded its forecast for the timing of the first FOMC rate forecast and the subsequent pace, there was a skew for how much impact the data would likely have under different scenarios. The 1.7 percent pace of price growth in headline and core price measures steadied from a cooling trend – though it does so below the central bank’s medium-term target. Downplaying the argument that this has nevertheless revived rate hopes; medium-term Treasury yields, Eurodollar futures and Fed Fund futures were all little moved on the day. Looking for a catalyst on the relative growth or relative interest rate front for the Dollar requires heavy-impact data. Today’s Chicago Fed National Activity Index and factory PMI is limited compared to next week’s FOMC decision and 3Q GDP.

Euro Worst Performing Major Braces for Growth Update

Scheduled event risk was limited once against for the Euro this past session. A multi-year high in Irish housing inflation and a strong 30-year German bond auction don’t touch upon the factors that are most interesting/concerning to FX traders. What was interesting through this past session were reports of a third straight day of asset purchases by the ECB. Though they reportedly bought Spanish covered bonds, there wasn’t a particularly remarkable move in the sovereign yields or the country’s capital market benchmarks. We will reportedly learn how much was purchased through this week next Monday. Meanwhile, the region’s economic and financial health are under the microscope. The ECB cautioned against positioning on conjecture over possible bank failures in the stress test results due Sunday, but the markets know the stakes. On the economic front, today’s docket offers up the Eurozone October PMI figures – the best leading data to GDP.

British Pound Mixed as Tone of BoE Minutes Softens

There is still a very vocal minority in the Monetary Policy Committee of the BoE. According to the minutes of the central bank’s last meeting – released this past session – members Weale and McCafferty once again voted for a 25 bp hike to the benchmark rate. They were overruled 7-2. Yet, despite the persistence of the group’s hawks, the ‘majority’ seems to be growing increasingly wary of their optimism. Remarks of evidence showing a slowing pace of growth and weak wage pressures builds on last week’s five-year low CPI reading. That same majority would also voice concern that a rate hike could leave the country vulnerable to shocks. Gilts and swaps were little changed for the day, but impliedrates are pushing back the time frame for the first hike. It now stands closer to mid-2015.

Japanese Yen: Official Says a Currency Decline is Good if Gradual

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda remarked the other day that the Japanese Yen was rising due to a bout of international risk aversion amid economic turmoil. This past session Vice Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura stated that a gradual drop in the currency was “good for Japan”. The stream of commentary from policymakers (the central bank and government) has grown steady. Yet, will it be effective? Effective ‘jawboning’ relies on either a favor market (already moves your way) or thinly veiled threats to alter stimulus. They currently have neither.

New Zealand Dollar More Responsive to its CPI than Aussie

Where the Australian Dollar was virtually unmoved by its 3Q CPI reading, New Zealand produced a substantial decline after its own inflation report. The difference is that the Kiwi is already suffering a tumble for the loss of its high profile yield forecast just a few months ago, and a curb of future hikes carries weight here. The 1.0 percent annual CPI reading is only a 5 quarter low, but far from the 2-3 percent target.

Emerging Market Capital Markets and Currencies Drop

Though FX was little effected by the shift in sentiment this past session, the Emerging Markets felt the pressure. The MSCI EM ETF fell for the first time in four days (0.7 percent). Meanwhile, the currency crosses were broadly read versus the US Dollar. Russia’s Economy Minister Ulyukayev offered a growth update that suggested the country’s economy stalled in September. The Ruble dropped 1.1 percent to a record low.

Gold Recovery Falling Far Short in Silver Counterpart

From its test of a multi-year low earlier this month, gold has rallied as much as 6.1 percent. As tepid as the market’s speculative interest in the move has been in ETF and derivatives demand, the price was nevertheless advancing. For silver – gold’s cheaper and sometimes speculative equivalent – the confidence has been far slower to find footing. The Gold-Silver ratio hit its highest level since May 2009 today.**Bring the economic calendar to your charts with the DailyFX News App.



To see updated SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS for the Majors, visit Technical Analysis Portal

To see updated PIVOT POINT LEVELS for the Majors and Crosses, visit our Pivot Point Table




— Written by: John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist for

To contact John, email Follow me on twitter at

Sign up for John’s email distribution list, here.


Crude Plummets To Critical Barrier, Gold Slumps On US CPI Surprise

Talking Points

Crude oil plunged by over 2.5 percent on Wednesday following another overwhelmingly bearish US inventories report from the Department of Energy. The government agency revealed a jump in total crude stockpiles by 7.11 million barrels for the week, well-above the consensus forecast. Moreover, refinery utilization slipped to its weakest since March and supplies at Cushing jumped by their highest since July.

Looking ahead, US preliminary manufacturing survey figures are set to cross the wires. Data from the world’s largest crude consumer has been relatively positive of-late. Yet another strong economic reading may do little to offset lingering supply glut concerns, which stand to depress WTI. Nonetheless the extent of recent declines may have opened the door to profit-taking from the bears, suggesting a consolidation should not be precluded.

The precious metals also suffered in recent trade after an upside surprise to US CPI data bolstered the greenback. The unexpected up-tick may have amplified expectations for a more hawkish Fed, which continues to trump inflation-hedge demand for gold and silver.

Upcoming US Manufacturing PMI data may offer the USD some guidance. The reading is tipped to retreat slightly from its recent peak, yet remain firmly within expansionary territory. An upside surprise would likely offer a positive signal for the health of the US economy, which may in turn support the USD and weigh on the precious metals.

Finally, natural gas is once again bracing for another round of weekly storage data. The energy commodity slumped by over 1 percent on Wednesday which may have reflected anticipation over a bearish print. Indeed, another injection figure above the seasonal average is likely to keep expectations over ample supplies alive, which may suppress prices.


Crude Plummets To Critical Barrier, Gold Slumps On US CPI Surprise

Source:DailyFX Economic Calendar, Times In GMT

Market Movements (Wed 22 Oct, 2014, Close 5PM EST)


Crude is at a critical juncture as it presses against the 80.00 barrier. Alongside a core downtrend (descending trendline, 20 SMA, ROC) a daily close below the nearby floor would open the 2012 low near 77.00.

Crude Oil: Awaiting Break Below Psychologically-Significant Barrier

Crude Plummets To Critical Barrier, Gold Slumps On US CPI Surprise

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0


Gold’s pullback from the 1,257 ceiling has yielded an Evening Star formation. Confirmation from a successive down-day and close below buying interest at 1,241 would be required to warn of a deeper setback. Yet at this stage indications of a short-term uptrend remain intact (20 SMA, ROC).

The DailyFX SpeculativeSentimentIndex suggests a mixed bias for gold based on trader positioning.

Gold: Retreat From 1,257 Generates Warning Signal

Crude Plummets To Critical Barrier, Gold Slumps On US CPI Surprise

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0


Silver remains in respect of trendline resistance and its retreat under the 17.30 floor has generated an Evening Star pattern. While typically a reversal signal from a preceding uptrend, the formation indicates the bears remain in control of the precious metal. This casts the immediate risk lower for a revisit of the 16.70 floor. Yet traders should be mindful that subdued negative momentum reflected by the ROC indicator suggests a clean descent may be difficult.

Silver: Respect of Trendline Resistance Casts Immediate Risks Lower

Crude Plummets To Critical Barrier, Gold Slumps On US CPI Surprise

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0


Copper’s wild intraday swings have continued with the latest pullback from the 23.6% Fib. leaving a Bullish Engulfing formation lacking confirmation. While bullish cues may now be lacking for the commodity some buying interest appears evident at the 3.00/01 floor. Alongside a lack of momentum reflected by the ROC indicator a clean run lower is likely to prove challenging.

Copper: Sellers Step In At Key Fib. Level

Crude Plummets To Critical Barrier, Gold Slumps On US CPI Surprise

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0


Palladium’s recovery has faltered at the 23.6% Fib, which has seen a Dark Cloud Cover pattern emerge. The key reversal signal if confirmed by an ensuing down session could herald a revisit of the recent lows near 735. However, traders should be mindful that short-term trend indicators are close to shifting (ROC and 20 SMA), suggesting fading negative sentiment.

Palladium: Rebound Stumbles At Fib. Lvl.

Crude Plummets To Critical Barrier, Gold Slumps On US CPI Surprise

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0


Platinum is probing above its 20 SMA alongside a cross above the zero bound for the ROC indicator. This suggests a potential shift in sentiment for the precious metal. Yet a continued climb is likely to prove challenging given the congestion overhead and the nearby 1,289 ceiling. Further a recently produced Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern suggests the bears are unprepared to relinquish their grip on the precious metal just yet.

Platinum: Turn In “Trend Indicators” Suggests A Shift In Sentiment

Crude Plummets To Critical Barrier, Gold Slumps On US CPI Surprise

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Written by David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst, DailyFX

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Contact and follow David on Twitter: @DaviddeFe


USDOLLAR at Key Resistance – Reaction to Provoke EUR/USD, AUD/USD

Talking Points:

- EURUSD slips below $1.2704/15 support zone.

- No longs in GBPUSD unless above $1.6260.

- Euro Faces Economic Headwinds with Weakening German, Euro-Zone PMIs

Volume levels are lower in the major FX pairs to start the week, but that may be a function of markets not having anything to chew on. Panicky headlines regarding the spread of ebola, economic growth in the Euro-Zone, and geopolitical hotspots have calmed in recent days, and alongside a diminished economic calendar to start the week, fear has given way to optimism anew.

Whether or not the jubliation in risk assets can continue indefinitely remains to be seen. Now that the economic calendar is opening up to more significant event risk in the second half of the week, FX markets are likely to be a bit more volatile again.

See the above video for technical considerations in all of the USD majors as the broad USDOLLAR Index attempts to punch through intermediate swing resistance.

Read more: USD Attempts to Fight the Correction – Levels in EUR/USD, USD/JPY

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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EUR/USD Risks Larger Rebound on Slowing U.S. Inflation (CPI)

- U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) to Slow for Third Consecutive Month.

- Core Rate of Inflation to Hold at Annualized 1.7% for Second Month.

For more updates, sign up for David’s e-mail distribution list.

Trading the News: U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI)

A further slowdown in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) may spark a bearish dollar reaction (bullish EUR/USD) as the majority of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) remain in no rush to normalize monetary policy.

What’s Expected:


Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Why Is This Event Important:

Even though the Fed is widely expected to conclude its quantitative easing (QE) program at the October 29 meeting, subdued price growth may encourage the FOMC to retain the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) for an extended period of time in order to promote a stronger recovery.

Expectations: Bearish Argument/Scenario

Easing input costs along with the slowdown in private-sector consumption may spur a weak CPI print, and the EUR/USD may face a larger correction over the near-term should the fundamental development drag on interest rate expectations.

Risk: Bullish Argument/Scenario

Nevertheless, the ongoing recovery in the labor market paired with the pickup in economic activity may show an unexpected uptick in price growth, and a stronger-than-expected inflation report may generate another wave of USD strength as market participants boost bets for higher borrowing costs.

For LIVE SSI Updates Ahead of the U.S. GDP Print, Join DailyFX on Demand

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bearish USD Trade: Headline & Core Inflation Continue to Undershoot

  • Need to see green, five-minute candle following the release to consider a long trade on EURUSD
  • If market reaction favors a bearish dollar trade, buy EURUSD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit

Bullish USD Trade: Price Growth Tops Market Expectations & Boosts Rate Expectations

  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a short EURUSD trade
  • Implement same setup as the bearish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction

Potential Price Targets For The Release

EUR/USD Daily Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Failure to retain the bullish RSI momentum raises the risk for a further decline in EUR/USD.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.2900 (61.8% retracement) to 1.2940 (38.2% expansion)
  • Interim Support: 1.2460 (78.6% retracement) to 1.2500 Pivot

Read More:

Price & Time: When Does the USD Trend Resume?

EUR/USD Bear Flag in Focus Amid Bets for ECB Corporate-Bond Purchases

Impact that the U.S. ISM Manufacturing report has had on EUR/USD during the last release

August 2014 U.S. Consumer Price Index


The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed more-than-expected in August, with the headline reading slipping to 1.7% from 2.0% in July, while the core rate of inflation unexpectedly narrowed to 1.7% to mark the slowest pace of growth since March. Even though the Fed argues inflation expectations remain firmly anchored, subdued price growth may continue to delay the normalization cycle as Chair Janet Yellen remains in no rush to abandon the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP). Despite the limited market reaction to the weak CPI print, the greenback regained its footing during the North America trade, with the EUR/USD dipping below the 1.2850 region and closing the day at 1.2864.

— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst and Shuyang Ren

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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Pound at Risk on Status-Quo BOE Minutes, US Dollar May Rise on CPI

Talking Points:

  • British Pound May Drop on Status-Quo Bank of England Meeting Minutes
  • US Dollar to Rise if September’s CPI Tops Forecasts, Boosting Fed Outlook
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

Minutes from October’s Bank of England policy meeting headline the economic calendar in European hours. The voting pattern on the rate-setting MPC committee will be in focus, with traders keen to see if the hawks were able to inch closer to securing enough voices in favor of a rate hike. The tally was 7-2 in support of the status quo in September.

On balance, UK economic news-flow deteriorated relative to consensus forecasts between the September and October sit-downs. Perhaps most significantly, September’s CPI data set showed the year-on-year inflation rate unexpectedly sank to 1.2 percent, the lowest since the post-crisis trough recorded five years prior. That suggests that an expansion of the pro-tightening contingent probably did not materialize.

Confirmation of as much may further undermine the probability of relatively sooner start to policy normalization in the minds of investors. Such a scenario bodes ill for the British Pound, which has broadly tracked a slide in front-end Gilt yields downward since early July.

Later in the day, the spotlight shifts to the US CPI report. The year-on-year inflation rate is expected to slow to 1.6 percent, the lowest since March. However, leading survey data warns that price growth accelerated, with factory-gate prices rising at the sharpest pace yet in 2014 and service-sector output costs reaching a five-month high. That opens the door for an upside surprise, which could help rebuild 2015 Fed rate hike expectations and boost the US Dollar.

Renewed fears of the relatively sooner onset of US policy tightening against a backdrop of swelling global slowdown fears may likewise undermine risk appetite amid fears that growth in North America will be insufficient to offset downturns in the Eurozone and China. That might put risk-geared currencies such the Australian and New Zealand Dollars under pressure while boosting safety-linked alternatives like the Japanese Yen.


Asia Session

European Session

Critical Levels

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

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Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak