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EURGBP Reacts to Slope Resistance- Reversal Setup Targets Weekly Open

Talking Points


EURGBP Reacts to Slope Resistance- Reversal Setup Targets Weekly Open

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook: EURGBP has been trading within the confines of a well-defined ascending median-line formation off the 2015 lows with the recent advance reversing off key confluence resistance at 7840/45. Note that the daily momentum signature has marked some bearish divergence on this last stretch and suggests that the immediate topside bias may be waning.

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EURGBP 30min

EURGBP Reacts to Slope Resistance- Reversal Setup Targets Weekly Open

Notes: An embedded ascending median-line formation off the November low has continued to define the advance with yesterday’s highs reversing sharply at the upper median-line parallel. Interim support rests at 7722 and 7685 with a more significant support confluence eyed at 7647/60. Note that the lower median-line parallel converges on this range into the close of the week & may offer favorable long entries if we do get down there. A break below the monhtly open at 7598 shifts the broader focus lower with such a scneario eyeing initial targets at 7542/51 & 7516.

Interim resistance stands at 7770 with a breach above the monthly high-day close at 7799 invalidating our near-term short-bias. Subsequnt topside resistance objectives eyed at 7889 & the 80-handle. A quarter of the daily average true range yields profit targets of 24-26 pips per scalp. Added caution is warranted heading into the close of the week Eurozone 4Q advanced GDP likely to fuel volatility in the EUR crosses.

Continue to track these setups and more throughout the week, subscribe to SB Trade Desk and take advantage of the DailyFX New Subscriber Discount!

Check out SSI to see how retail crowds are positioned as well as open interest heading into February trade.

Relevant Data Releases

EURGBP Reacts to Slope Resistance- Reversal Setup Targets Weekly Open

Other Setups in Play:

—Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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All About The Yuan

Talking points:

- Chinese currency is referred to by many names: Yuan, CNY, CNH, RMB, reference rate

- The Chinese Yuan is traded in two separate markets: onshore (CNY) and offshore (CNH)

- Yuan exchange ratesare managed with a floating-rate regime by the PBOC

- Relevant regulators in China for the Yuan are: PBOC, SAFE, CFETS

- Top Chinese media

Yuan’s Multiple Names

The Chinese currency, widely called as the Yuan, has multiple names referring to different purposes or functions.

Yuanis simply the name of a basic unit of account in China, similar to the ‘Dollar’ in the United States. The Chinese currency used in mainland China is called the Chinese Yuan, or ‘CNY’ to denote the ‘onshore Yuan.’ And just like the US currency, the Yuan can be broken down into smaller units, just like the dollar can be broken down into quarters and dimes, the Chinese Yuan can be broken down into Jiao (.1 of 1 Yuan), Fen (.01 of 1 Yuan), etc.

Reminbi can be loosely translated as “people’s currency” in Chinese. This is likely why the term has become known as the name of the Chinese currency. RMB is the abbreviation for Reminbi.

Yuan’s Onshore/Offshore Markets

China’s unique capital markets, which are not yet fully open, makes the Yuan’s role different in domestic and international markets.

On the onshore market (CNY), Yuan is mainly used for two purposes: A) interbank settlement, and B) corporates selling and purchasing foreign exchange for business purposes. However, this is not meant to imply that mainland China does not have retail traders. Each Chinese citizen has an annual quota of US$50,000 or equivalent that they’re allowed to transact. They are allowed to use this quota to purchase foreign currencies freely without specifying any specific reasons. The difference lies in the leverage when trading the currency. Unlike many international markets, the leverage is 1:1when the Yuan is traded at onshore markets, at least for now.

Yuan’s offshore markets are outside of mainland China, and this includes traditional centers in Hong Kong, Singapore and London as well as the newly developed center in Luxembourg. In order to distinguish from the onshore market, Yuan trading at offshore markets are given a separate ticker, CNH, such as USD/CNH.

At the offshore market, Yuan trading is more active and market-driven. In general, Hong Kong is often considered to be the most important offshore center for the Yuan. According to the research study, RMB Regionalization (Mu, 2011), the Yuan’s role in Hong Kong has exceeded US Dollar’s since 2005. As a global leading trading company, FXCM Inc. offers USD/CNH trading via its FXCM Asia and FXCM UK subsidiaries.

The Third Rate

For each yuan pair, in addition to the onshore rate and offshore rate, there is one more important rate that traders need to keep an eye on. It is called the reference rate, also known as the mid-point rate, the central parity rate or the daily fixing. All of these refer to the benchmark rate set by China’s central bank on a daily basis.

More specifically, the central bank of China refers to three things to determine the central parity rate: A) The closing rate at China’s interbank foreign exchange market on the previous trading day; B) Demand and supply conditions in the foreign exchange market and C) Exchange rate movements of major currencies.

Yuan’s Formation Regime

The Onshore Yuan is under a managed floating-rate regime, which implies neither free floating nor fully controlled. If we say free-floating is the white color and fully-controlled is black, the Yuan’s color is grayish-white.

All About The Yuan

At current onshore market, the Yuan rate is allowed to float within 2% above or below the reference rate. The trading band is set to be stable over a period of time, and it will not usually change on a daily basis. It was originally set to be 0.3% in 1994. And then it was revised to 0.5% in 2007 and to then to 1% in 2012. The current 2% range was set in 2014.

All About The Yuan

Yuan’s onshore rate (CNY) and offshore rates (CNH) affect each other under the current managed-floating system.

All About The Yuan

1) Market forces will affect all three rates but with different degrees of impacts. As China’s financial markets aren’t yet fully opened, market forces and external factors could have a lessened impact than they might in other international markets. However, as China continues to open up its financial markets and promote the Yuan’s globalization process, market forces will likely play a larger role.

2) China’s central bank directly guides the onshore exchange rates through the daily reference rate and the trading band. The regulator indirectly influences the Yuan’s offshore rates despite the fact that the impact is not as strong as that towards onshore rates.

3) When the market is extremely volatile, the central bank can use open market operation to directly impact offshore rates. An example is that

they hit HIBOR with a 66.82% rate less than a month ago to shake short-sellers out of the market.

Because market forces and degrees of government influence differ between the onshore and offshore rates are different, we may see discrepancies in USD/CNH and USD/CNY moves from time to time.

Yuan regulators

Most traders may have heard of People’s Bank of China (PBOC), which is China’s central bank. However, this isn’t the only regulator with a say on Yuan rates. There is one other regulator and one subsidiary of the PBOC that can have a considerable impact on the Yuan’s exchange rate.

State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) is an administrative agency that designs foreign exchange policies and regulates the foreign exchange market. It isa deputy-ministerial-level agency and a half-level below the PBOC, which is a ministerial-level state agency. PBOC and SAFE combined function similarly to the Federal Reserve in the US.

We have mentioned above that the central bank determines the reference rate on a daily basis. The rate is not released directly by the headquarters in Beijing. Instead, it is announced by China Foreign Exchange Trade System (CFETS) Center, a subsidiary of PBOC in Shanghai. Besides the daily reference rate, the CFETS reports other important rates, such as the Yuan’s swap and bond rates.

All About The Yuan

This mechanism is not randomly set. It highlights the fact that Beijing is the political center and Shanghai is the financial center. Policies are designed at the political center and usually first applied in the active markets such as in Shanghai and Shenzhen. This is why China has stock exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen but none in Beijing.

These cities also are the pilot regions in China for new policies and reforms: For example, Shanghai established the first free trade zone in China and now is building up the first offshore Yuan center in mainland China. The Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect has been used as the first channel for foreign retail investors to participate in China’s domestic equity markets. As a result, foreign capital and international traders and investors may be able to look deeper into Shanghai and Shenzhen to explore potential investment opportunities.

Top Chinese Media

DailyFX provides a daily digest to keep readers up-to-date on news typically covered only in Chinese-language sources. This daily digest focuses on market sentiment, new developments in China’s foreign exchange policy, changes in financial market regulations and economic coverage. The sources include but not limited to:

PBOC & SAFE: the central bank and foreign exchange regulator.

China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC): equity market regulator.

Sina News: China’s most important online media source, similar to CNN in the US. They also own a Chinese version of Twitter, called Weibo, with around 200 million active usersmonthly.

Hexun News: Chinese leading online media of financial news.

China Stock News: Chinese leading online media of financial news.

Written by Renee Mu, DailyFX Research Team

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USD/JPY Oversold, Retail FX Remains Net-Long Following Yellen

Talking Points:

- USD/JPY Risks Further Losses as RSI Threatens Oversold Territory; Retail FX Remains Net-Long.

- Oil Fails to Preserve Opening Yearly-Range; 2002-03 Lows on Radar.

- USDOLLAR Sits at Support Following Fed Testimony- Retail Sales, U. of Michigan Confidence in Focus.

For more updates, sign up for David’s e-mail distribution list.


USD/JPY Daily Chart

Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Despite negative interest rates in Japan, USD/JPY stands at risk for a further decline as it carves a series of lower highs & lows, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) pushes into oversold territory.
  • Even though the Bank of Japan (BoJ) keeps the door open to further embark on its easing cycle, the Yen may continue to benefit from its ‘funding-currency’ status as market participants scale back their appetite for risk.
  • The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-long USD/JPY since January 29, but the ratio appears to be moving back towards recent extremes as it climbs to +2.79, with 74% of traders now long.

US Oil

USOil Daily Chart

  • Even though the U.S. Department of Energy announced an unexpected 725K drop in oil inventories, crude remain at risk for a further decline as it fails to preserve the opening yearly-range, with prices breaking down from the descending triangle formation carried over from January.
  • Long-term outlook remains tilted to the downside amid the slowdown in global demand; will keep a close eye on hard commodity prices as Copper looks poised to follow suit.
  • Failure to hold above the January low ($27.53) may open up the next downside target around 26.10 (100% expansion), which coincides with the key support from back in 2002-03.

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USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

USD/JPY Oversold, Retail FX Remains Net-Long Following YellenUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Despite the mixed market reaction to the semi-annual Humphrey-Hawkins testimony, the USDOLLAR may stage a larger rebound in the days ahead should the greenback continue to hold/close above near-term support around 12,049 (78.6% retracement).
  • Seems as though the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will stay on course to normalize monetary policy as Chair Janet Yellen remains upbeat on the economy and sees the central bank achieving the 2% inflation target over the policy horizon; a rebound in U.S. Retail Sales accompanied by a pickup in the U. of Michigan Confidence survey may boost the appeal of the dollar should the data reinforce Fed expectations for a ‘consumer-led’ recovery in 2016.
  • USDOLLAR may mimic the price action from December, with the first topside region of interest coming in around 12,176 (78.6% expansion) to the 12,200 pivot.

USD/JPY Oversold, Retail FX Remains Net-Long Following Yellen

Read More:

GBP/USD – Lots of Questions

US Crude Oil – Global Inflection Point?

EUR/USD Bullish Interpretation is Valid While above 1.1050

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: 14-Month Low Revives Reversal Focus

Get our top trading opportunities of 2016 HERE

Avoid the pitfalls of trading by steering clear of classic mistakes. Review these principles in the Traits of Successful Traders series.

— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David’s e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

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With the USDOLLAR at Key Support, is Yellen the Last Line of Defense?

Talking Points:

- Fed Chair Yellen gives testiomony at 15:00 GMT today.

- USDOLLAR Index barely holding above 12035.

- As market volatility rises, it’s a good time to review the “Traits of Successful Traders” series.

The USDOLLAR Index continues to flirt with a major support region around 12035 as the rally around Friday’s US NFP report has all but fizzled out. Momentum indicators (daily MACD and Slow Stochastics) have continued to press lower into bearish territory, and price is now treating the daily 8-EMA as trend resistance after Monday’s failed rally.

The technical nature of the USDOLLAR Index is particularly important to weigh when considering the potential impact of Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s testiomony today. We’re in the midst of a negative news cycle, one that has sucked in the US Dollar via reduced expectations for tighter Fed policy this year. There have been two diametrically opposing views: that the Fed is right in its projected policy path and should remain confident; or that the Fed is wrong and needs to be paying closer attention to financial market developments both at home and abroad.

It seems, then, that Chair Yellen has the opportunity to serve as the last line of defense for the USDOLLAR Index, at a time when the technical picture is eroding so quickly. Likewise, EUR/USD continues to exhibit a breakout retest in the form of a bull flag on its H4 timeframe that’s aiming for $1.1450/1.1530; USD/JPY appears to be triggering (weekly close to confirm given time scale of move) a head & shoulders topping pattern that points towards ¥106.00/25.

See the above video for a deeper discussion on Fed Chair Yellen’s testimony and for technical considerations in EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD, and the USDOLLAR Index.

Read more: EUR/USD, USD/JPY Hint at Ugly Potential for USDOLLAR Index

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail

Follow him on the DailyFX RTN, Twitter, and Stocktwits at @CVecchioFX.

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USD Ready to Run, SPX Lay in Wait for Yellen

Talking Points:

- The news front over the next two days will likely be dominated by Ms. Yellen’s twice-annual testimony in front of Congress. Today she speaks with the House of Representatives, and tomorrow the Senate.

- Ms. Yellen’s already provided her prepared remarks (summarized below the first chart), and at 10 am ET, she will read that to Congress. After that, she will take questions, and this is where the volatility may get interesting.

- The US Dollar is at the same pennant support that we mentioned last week after catching a bounce on Thursday and Friday. USD can put in some major moves on the back of this testimony, as the recent bout of USD weakness has been driven by decreased rate hike expectations. If Ms. Yellen counters this by taking a hawkish tone, watch for USD strength.

There is one really big news item on the calendar for the next two days: Janet Yellen’s twice-annual monetary report in front of Congress. Today begins with the House Financial Services Committee, and tomorrow Ms. Yellen will be speaking in front of the Senate Banking Committee.

Like most Fed events, this will begin with prepared remarks from Ms. Yellen (discussed below the first chart) and this is where the market will get the Fed’s take on the current state of the US economy. After that, she’s open for questions and this is where events can get really interesting as members of Congress can basically ask her whatever they want and she’s in a position where she will probably respond. This is quite a bit different than normal Fed meetings with press conferences led by reporter questions. Congressmen (and Congresswomen) represent voters, and with hot-button issues like the economy, we’ll often see vociferous news-worthy types of loaded questions directed towards Ms. Yellen that, frankly, can be hard for anyone to answer. Any stumbles are caught on tape and replayed and replayed.

There is one gigantic question on investors’ minds, and fully expect this to be the object of focus throughout this two-day testimony; and that is how aggressively the Fed is looking to raise interest rates.

There is a gigantic disconnect right now between market expectations and the perception of Fed expectations. In the most recent dot plot matrix, the Fed indicated that they may be looking at four rate hikes throughout 2016. Markets never really bought that, and at the beginning of the year we were looking at 2 hikes expected by markets, and by now that’s all the way down to zero with the expectation for that next hike all the way out to 2017. So there has been a growing disconnect between these two numbers and given the state of the global economy with some very legitimate concerns in Asia combined with continued challenges for commodity prices, the Fed’s continued hawkishness has become somewhat of a concern.

But as we’ve gotten more and more indications of softness in data out of the US, combined with the plethora of peripheral issues developing around the economic world, investors have priced out those rate hike expectations from the Fed. This is somewhat of the expectation that the Fed will continue doing what they’ve been doing over the past five years, which is basically bending monetary policy in response to stock prices. This could explain the late-session ramps that we’ve seen in US stocks over the past two days, and the US Dollar has just moved back down to support in the bull pennant that we identified last week.

USD Ready to Run, SPX Lay in Wait for Yellen

Created with Marketscope/Trading Station II; prepared by James Stanley

Ms. Yellen’s prepared remarks (released at 8:30 AM ET):

Ms. Yellen provided another balanced statement, although she did avoid the question of a rate hike in March. Ms. Yellen talked up employment as a strong point while also saying that the bank expects inflation to remain subdued because of further declines in energy prices.

Ms. Yellen did mention foreign economic developments posing a risk to US growth, and specifically cited declines in the Reminbi’s exchange rate as posing uncertainty around China’s exchange rate policy and, in-turn, economic projections.

She also mentioned that conditions in the US have become less conducive for growth citing equity market declines, credit bifurcation (higher rates for less credit worthy borrowers, less impact for more credit worthy) and further appreciation of the US Dollar.

This is somewhat of a similar hat tip provided by Mr. Dudley last week, in which he mentioned the threat of a strong US Dollar potentially pulling the US Economy into recession. We discussed this concept in the article; The Real Bain of Equity Markets is a US Dollar problem.

Basically, in a world where most Central Banks are trying to deflect capital flows, being the one major Central Bank looking at a rising rate regime will attract considerable capital flows. Those capital flows mean more demand for US Dollars, which means trouble for American exporters. That stronger dollar makes American production less competitive, both internationally and in the US. So, even if the US is recovering and doing well, if the rest of the world is weakening their currency, well, eventually, that strength in the Dollar will probably pull the US into recession along with the rest of the world.

On the other hand, there is a very legitimate need for higher interest rates for pension funds, retirees and near-retirees. The initial market response to negative rates in Japan hasn’t been very positive, as the Nikkei spiked down to another new low last night.

Response to Negative Rates in Japan Not a Positive For Equities So Far

USD Ready to Run, SPX Lay in Wait for Yellen

Created with Marketscope/Trading Station II; prepared by James Stanley

The Volatility Will Likely Start Just After 10:00 AM

This is when Ms. Yellen begins speaking in front of Congress. She’ll start off by reading the testimony that’s already been released that I’ve summarized above. After that, she’s open for questions. There isn’t much that she can really say here that’s out of band with the testimony. She can’t tell the future, hopefully Congress knows that.

The market response to the next two days’ worth of questions will be telling. It’s not likely that she’s going to commit to rate hikes in front of Congress on national television, and it’s also unlikely that she’s going to back down. For that we’re probably going to have to wait until March (next Fed meeting with a press conference). But she will likely try to hedge her statements to keep flexibility on the Fed’s side.

As for trading this – these events can be tough. Volatility can pick up throughout the event, and moves can reverse really quickly if one misstep or misstatement is perceived by markets. This is like trading news for any other major announcement, only this one can last for a couple of hours over the course of a two days.

There are two primary ways that traders can attempt to counter this: 1) Longer-term horizon. Go out to a longer time frame, use a wider stop and a smaller position size so as not to take on too much risk on any one ‘idea.’ 2) Use tighter stops on shorter-term momentum-based approaches. This one can be tough because if no smooth trends develop, the scalper can end up getting whipped around in such an environment.

As for longer-term setups; we discussed the S&P last week as it was trending higher in a bear-flag formation. Since then the bear flag has been broken to the down-side, catching support at 1,827. But, in anticipation of this morning’s event, we’ve seen some pullback in the S&P that’s brought price action up to a potentially new lower-high, and this resistance has come in at the 76.4% retracement level of the most recent major move (taking the 2,082 high to the low at 1,810). The last four-hour bar setup as a Doji, which makes for a bearish harami pattern. But perhaps more enticing – if this current 4-hour bar closes below 1,857, we’ll have an evening star pattern: This can be a really attractive bearish reversal pattern in what’s been a strong down-trending market. That can be a compelling longer-term setup that can offer an attractive risk-reward.

USD Ready to Run, SPX Lay in Wait for Yellen

Created with Marketscope/Trading Station II; prepared by James Stanley

— Written by James Stanley, Analyst for

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EUR/USD Breakout Susceptible to Upbeat Fed Testimony

- Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen to Appear Before House, Senate Committee.

- Will Chair Yellen Continue to Look for a Consumer-Led Recovery in 2016?

Trading the News: Humphrey-Hawkins Testimony

The semi-annual Humphrey-Hawkins testimony with Fed Chair Janet Yellen may prop up the greenback and undermine the near-term rally in EUR/USD amid the diverging paths for monetary policy.

What’s Expected:

EUR/USD Fed Testimony

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Why Is This Event Important:More of the same from Chair Yellen may boost the appeal of the dollar as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pledges to further normalize monetary policy, and the dollar may trade on a firmer footing should the fresh batch of central bank rhetoric boost interest-rate expectations.

Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario

Signs of sticky price growth accompanied the ongoing improvement in the labor market may encourage Chair Yellen to highlight an upbeat outlook for the U.S. economy, and the central bank may stay on course to implement higher borrowing-costs over the coming months especially as the region approaches ‘full-employment.’

Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario

However, the slowdown in household spending may dampen Fed expectations for a consumer-led recovery in 2016, and the fresh batch of central bank rhetoric may produce near-term headwinds for the greenback should Chair Yellen largely endorse a wait-and-see approach.

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bullish USD Trade: Fed Stays on Course to Further Normalize Policy in 2016

  • Need red, five-minute candle following the rate decision to consider a short EUR/USD position.
  • If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from cost; at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit.

Bearish USD Trade: FOMC Talks Down Bets for Higher Borrowing-Costs

  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade.
  • Implement same strategy as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction.

Potential Price Targets For The Release


EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • EUR/USD may continue to retrace the decline from the August high (1.1713) as it breaks out of the downward trend carried over from the end of 2014; may see the 2015 range come back in play as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) preserves the bullish formation from December.
  • The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-short EUR/USD since February 1, but the ratio continues to work its way back towards recent extremes as it slips to -2.13, with 32% of traders now long.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.1510 (50% retracement) to 1.1520 (61.8% expansion)
  • Interim Support: Interim Support: 1.0380 (78.6% expansion) to 1.0410 (61.8% expansion)

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Avoid the pitfalls of trading by steering clear of classic mistakes. Review these principles in the Traits of Successful Traders series.

Impact that the Fed Testimony has had on EUR/USD during the last hearing

July 2015 Humphrey-Hawkins Testimony


Fed Chair Janet Yellen struck an upbeat tone in front of the House Financial Services Committee as the central bank head anticipates a robust recovery in labor market, leading to ‘moderate’ growth for the U.S. economy. Moreover, Chair Yellen largely argued that the central bank remains on course to achieve the 2% inflation over the policy horizon as the disinflationary environment remains largely driven by transitory factors. The greenback strengthened following the semi-annual testimony, with EUR/USD grinding lower throughout the North American session to close the day at 1.0940.

Read More:

GBP/USD – Lots of Questions

US Crude Oil – Global Inflection Point?

EUR/USD Bullish Interpretation is Valid While above 1.1050

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: 14-Month Low Revives Reversal Focus

— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst and Shuyang Ren

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David’s e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

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